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State-Dependent Effects on Voter Participation: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. House Elections

Listed author(s):
  • Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou

    ()

    (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Costas Roumanias

    ()

    (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece)

In an simple model of voter participation, the effects of election margin and campaign expenditure are shown to be state-dependent – varying with low/high turnout. We empirically assess these implications for observed turnout, employing data from US House elections from 2000 to 2008 by means of quantile regression analysis. We document that the effects of expected election margin and campaign spending on turnout are state-dependent: the later is positive and decreasing, whereas the former is negative and U-shaped. Other determinants' influence on turnout (e.g. education, population density) is also shown to vary across the conditional distribution of turnout rate.

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File URL: http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp16-29.pdf
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Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 16-29.

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Date of creation: Dec 2016
Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-29
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  1. Moshe Buchinsky, 1998. "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 88-126.
  2. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August.
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