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State-Dependent Effects on Voter Participation: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. House Elections


  • Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou

    () (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece)

  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    () (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Costas Roumanias

    () (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece)


In an simple model of voter participation, the effects of election margin and campaign expenditure are shown to be state-dependent – varying with low/high turnout. We empirically assess these implications for observed turnout, employing data from US House elections from 2000 to 2008 by means of quantile regression analysis. We document that the effects of expected election margin and campaign spending on turnout are state-dependent: the later is positive and decreasing, whereas the former is negative and U-shaped. Other determinants' influence on turnout (e.g. education, population density) is also shown to vary across the conditional distribution of turnout rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou & Theodore Panagiotidis & Costas Roumanias, 2016. "State-Dependent Effects on Voter Participation: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. House Elections," Working Paper series 16-29, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-29

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Moshe Buchinsky, 1998. "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 88-126.
    2. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August.
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    More about this item


    Voter Turnout; Election Margin; Campaign Expenditure; Quantile Regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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