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Climate Impacts on Chinese Corn Yields: A Fractional Polynomial Regression Model

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  • Baojing Sun
  • G. Cornelis van Kooten

Abstract

In this study, we examine the effect of climate on corn yields in northern China using data from ten districts in Inner Mongolia and two in Shaanxi province. A regression model with a flexible functional form is specified, with explanatory variables that include seasonal growing degree days, precipitation, technical change and dummy variables to account for regional fixed effects. Results indicate that a fractional polynomial model in growing degree days explains variability in corn yields better than a linear or quadratic model. Among the tested models, the other factors show steady effects on corn yields. Growing degree days, precipitation in July, August and September, and technical change are important determinants of corn yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Baojing Sun & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2012. "Climate Impacts on Chinese Corn Yields: A Fractional Polynomial Regression Model," Working Papers 2012-02, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:rep:wpaper:2012-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick Royston & Douglas G. Altman, 1994. "Regression Using Fractional Polynomials of Continuous Covariates: Parsimonious Parametric Modelling," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 43(3), pages 429-453, September.
    2. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2006. "Nonlinear Effects of Weather on Corn Yields," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 391-398.
    3. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2611, December.
    4. Turvey, Calum G. & Kong, Rong & Belltawn, Burgen, 2009. "Weather Risk and the Viability of Weather Insurance In Western China," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49362, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects," NBER Working Papers 13799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corn yields; fractional polynomial regression;

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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