The Changing Roles of Family Income and Academic Ability for US College Attendance

We harmonize the results of three dozen historical studies stretching back to the early 20th century to construct a time series of college attendance patterns. We find an important reversal around the time of World War II: before that, family characteristics such as income were the better predictor of college attendance; after, academic ability was the better predictor. We construct a model of college choice that can explain this reversal as a consequence of the post-War surge in the demand for college, explained by the rise in the college wage premium and declining real tuition. Although these factors affected college demand for all types of students equally, they set off a chain reaction in the model: colleges hit capacity constraints; colleges institute selective admissions; colleges become more dispersed in quality; and students apply to a broader set of colleges. High-ability students become more likely to attend college because their options become more attractive, but the opposite is true of high-income students. The driving forces and mechanisms are consistent with changes in higher education after the war, documented here and elsewhere.