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The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?

Author

Listed:
  • Kurt Mitman

    (Stockholm University)

  • Iourii Manovskii

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Marcus Hagedorn

    (Institute of Advanced Studies)

Abstract

We measure the effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment. We exploit the variation induced by the decision of Congress in December 2013 not to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across U.S. states at the beginning of December 2013 were abruptly cut to zero. To achieve identification we use the fact that this policy change was exogenous to cross-sectional differences across U.S. states and we exploit a policy discontinuity at state borders. We find that a 1% drop in benefit duration leads to a statistically significant increase of employment by 0.0161 log points. In levels, 1.8 million additional jobs were created in 2014 due to the benefit cut. Almost 1 million of these jobs were filled by workers from out of the labor force who would not have participated in the labor market had benefit extensions been reauthorized.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurt Mitman & Iourii Manovskii & Marcus Hagedorn, 2015. "The Impact of Unemployment Benefit Extensions on Employment: The 2014 Employment Miracle?," 2015 Meeting Papers 1318, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1318
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    2. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 535-551, July.
    3. Thomas J. Holmes, 1998. "The Effect of State Policies on the Location of Manufacturing: Evidence from State Borders," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 667-705, August.
    4. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 535-551, July.
    5. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2013. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," Working Papers halshs-00849071, HAL.
    6. Andrew C. Johnston & Alexandre Mas, 2015. "Potential Unemployment Insurance Duration and Labor Supply: The Individual and Market-Level Response to a Benefit Cut," Working Papers 590, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    7. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gutierrez, Italo A., 2016. "Job insecurity, unemployment insurance and on-the-job search. Evidence from older American workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 228-245.
    2. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    3. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    4. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2014. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999 to 2008: Can they be blamed for intra-Euro Area imbalances?," Working Papers 05/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Stanislav Anatolyev & Anna Mikusheva, 2018. "Limit Theorems for Factor Models," Papers 1807.06338, arXiv.org.
    6. Clymo, AJ, 2017. "Heterogeneous Firms, Wages, and the Effects of Financial Crises," Economics Discussion Papers 20572, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    7. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market reforms in the time of imbalance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 69-93.
    8. Pei, Yun & Xie, Zoe, 2016. "A Quantitative Theory of Time-Consistent Unemployment Insurance," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Dec 2017.
    9. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    10. Martins, Pedro S., 2016. "Should the Maximum Duration of Fixed-Term Contracts Increase in Recessions? Evidence from a Law Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 10206, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. repec:bla:labour:v:31:y:2017:i:4:p:369-393 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dirk Krueger & Kurt Mitman & Fabrizio Perri, 2016. "On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions," NBER Working Papers 22458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Tomer Blumkin & Leif Danziger & Eran Yashiv, 2017. "Optimal unemployment benefit policy and the firm productivity distribution," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(1), pages 36-59, February.
    14. Andrew C. Johnston & Alexandre Mas, 2015. "Potential Unemployment Insurance Duration and Labor Supply: The Individual and Market-Level Response to a Benefit Cut," Working Papers 590, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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