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Depreciation expectations and interest rate differentials: Are there regime switches? The Peruvian case

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  • Alberto Humala

    (Central Bank of Peru)

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric assessment of the uncovered interest parity (UIP) for Peruvian financial instruments and documents the main empirical regularities in this relationship. The information contents of interest rate differentials about depreciation expectations are assessed under different econometric specifications. In the case of Peru, linear approximations along with periods of relatively high expected inflation suggest that UIP would hold on average over the short term (contrary to international evidence). Alternatively, with price-stability periods (as in a fully-fledged inflation targeting scheme), linear representations show opposite evidence to UIP. When both scenarios are included over a given sample size, regime switching models distinguish between periods consistent with UIP and those periods in which UIP is not so relevant. In particular, Markov switching models signal the importance of foreign exchange volatility to assess UIP validity.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Humala, 2006. "Depreciation expectations and interest rate differentials: Are there regime switches? The Peruvian case," Working Papers 2006-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2006-002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ramírez, Juan & Vásquez, José & Pereda, Javier, 2015. "Determinants of the Demand for Cash in Peru: A Non Linear Approach," Working Papers 2015-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    paridad descubierta de tasas de interés; diferenciales de tasas de interés; tipo de cambio; modelos de regímenes cambiantes Markov;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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