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Unemployment Duration: Competing and Defective Risks

  • John T. Addison
  • Pedro Portugal

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment duration in the framework of a competing risks model, where the destination states are employment and inactivity. The major innovation is the use of a split-population approach to accommodate the presence of defective risks in the context of the competing risks model. Certain of the regressors that affect the conditional hazards are allowed to influence defective risks. Unobserved individual heterogeneity among the susceptible populations is also controlled for. Access to unemployment benefits and age are accorded special emphasis because of their influence on defective risks and escape rates.

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File URL: http://www.bportugal.pt/en-US/BdP%20Publications%20Research/WP200001.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w200001.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200001
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  1. Fallick, Bruce Chelimsky, 1991. "Unemployment Insurance and the Rate of Re-employment of Displaced Workers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 228-35, May.
  2. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1996. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 36, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  3. Bart L. W. Cockx, 2000. "Analysis Of Transition Data By The Minimum-Chi-Square Method: An Application To Welfare Spells In Belgium," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 392-405, August.
  4. Addison, John T. & Portugal, Pedro, 2001. "Job Search Methods and Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 349, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M.
  6. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," NBER Working Papers 0979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Melkersson, Maria, 1999. "Unemployment duration and heterogenous search behavior among Swedish disabled workers," Working Paper Series 1999:5, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  8. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. Portugal, Pedro & Addison, John T, 1995. "Short- and Long-Term Unemployment. A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 205-27, May.
  10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," NBER Working Papers 3387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
  12. Olympia Bover & Pilar García-Perea & Pedro Portugal, 2000. "Labour market outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 379-428, October.
  13. Ridder, Geert & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2002. "A cross-country comparison of labor market frictions," Working Paper Series 2002:22, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  14. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
  15. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
  16. Bruce D. Meyer, 1988. "Unemployment Insurance And Unemployment Spells," NBER Working Papers 2546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Christopher J. Flinn, 1986. "Econometric Analysis of CPS-Type Unemployment Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 21(4), pages 456-484.
  18. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Pudney, Stephen & Thomas, Jonathan, 1995. "Specification Tests for the Competing Risks Duration Model: An Application to Unemployment Duration and Sectoral Movement," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(3), pages 323-47, August.
  20. Olivier Blanchard & Pedro Portugal, 1998. "What Hides Behind An Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and Us Unemployment," Working Papers w199803, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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