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Short- and Long-Term Unemployment. A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects


  • Portugal, Pedro
  • Addison, John T


In this paper we present the first application to unemployment duration analysis of a mixture distribution model, initially proposed in the biosciences literature by Blackstone, Naftel, and Turner (1986). The model is characterized by the decomposition of the aggregate hazard function into a number of distinct hazard functions. The approach allows us to attribute to each function a different set of covariates as well as coefficients Using U.S. data on displaced workers, we are able successfully to decompose the time varying hazard into two distinct phases - corresponding to short-term and long-term unemployment - and in the process evaluate (and reject) the proportionality assumption. We also compare the results from the model with those obtained from the Cox proportional hazards model and with a parametric hazards model in which a Burr specification is employed for the baseline hazard. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Portugal, Pedro & Addison, John T, 1995. "Short- and Long-Term Unemployment. A Parametric Model with Time-Varying Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 205-227, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:57:y:1995:i:2:p:205-27

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kevin M. Murphy & Finis Welch, 1992. "The Structure of Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 285-326.
    2. Barry T. Hirsch, 1982. "The Interindustry Structure of Unionism, Earnings, and Earnings Dispersion," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 36(1), pages 22-39, October.
    3. Stewart, Mark B, 1987. "Collective Bargaining Arrangements, Closed Shops and Relative Pay," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(385), pages 140-156, March.
    4. Stewart, Mark B, 1991. "Union Wage Differentials in the Face of Changes in the Economic and Legal Environment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(230), pages 155-172, May.
    5. Steven J. Davis, 1992. "Cross-Country Patterns of Change in Relative Wages," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 239-300 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1992. "Minimum Wages," CEP Discussion Papers dp0080, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Levy, Frank & Murnane, Richard J, 1992. "U.S. Earnings Levels and Earnings Inequality: A Review of Recent Trends and Proposed Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1333-1381, September.
    8. Stewart, Mark B, 1983. "Relative Earnings and Individual Union Membership in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 50(198), pages 111-125, May.
    9. Lawrence F. Katz & Gary W. Loveman & David G. Blanchflower, 1993. "A Comparison of Changes in the Structure of Wages," NBER Working Papers 4297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Richard B. Freeman, 1980. "Unionism and the Dispersion of Wages," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 34(1), pages 3-23, October.
    11. Richard B. Freeman, 1982. "Union Wage Practices and Wage Dispersion within Establishments," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 36(1), pages 3-21, October.
    12. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-442, June.
    13. Richard B. Freeman, 1991. "How Much Has De-Unionisation Contributed to the Rise in Male Earnings Inequality?," NBER Working Papers 3826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. John T. Addison & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Unemployment Duration Competing and Defective Risks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(1).
    2. Arestis, Philip & Mariscal, Iris Biefang-Frisancho, 1998. "Capital shortages and asymmetries in UK unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 189-204, June.

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