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Crises: Equilibrium Shifts and Large Shocks

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  • Stephen Morris

    (Princeton University)

  • Muhamet Yildiz

    (Massachusetts Institute of T echnology)

Abstract

A coordination game with incomplete information is played through time. In each period, payoffs depend on a fundamental state and an additional idiosyncratic shock. Fundamentals evolve according to a random walk where the changes in fundamentals (namely common shocks) have a fat tailed distribution. We show that majority play shifts either if fundamentals reach a critical threshold or if there are large common shocks, even before the threshold is reached. The fat tails assumption matters because it implies that large shocks make players more unsure about whether their payoffs are higher than others. This feature is necessary for large shocks to matter

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Morris & Muhamet Yildiz, 2016. "Crises: Equilibrium Shifts and Large Shocks," Working Papers 083_2016, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:metric:083_2016
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    Cited by:

    1. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2020. "When the penny doesn't drop - Macroeconomic tail risk and currency crises," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 520, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Willemien Kets & Alvaro Sandroni, 2021. "A Theory of Strategic Uncertainty and Cultural Diversity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(1), pages 287-333.
    3. Balbus, Lukasz & Dziewulski, Pawel & Reffett, Kevin & Wozny, Lukasz, 2022. "Markov distributional equilibrium dynamics in games with complementarities and no aggregate risk," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(2), May.
    4. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2020. "Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash," CESifo Working Paper Series 8334, CESifo.
    5. Kets, Willemien & Kager, Wouter & Sandroni, Alvaro, 2022. "The value of a coordination game," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    6. Xiaosheng Mu & Luciano Pomatto & Philipp Strack & Omer Tamuz, 2020. "Background risk and small-stakes risk aversion," Papers 2010.08033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    7. Min Zhang, 2020. "Non-Monotone Social Learning," Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics and Finance 202008, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
    8. Isabel Trevino, 2020. "Informational Channels of Financial Contagion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 297-335, January.
    9. Zhang, Min, 2021. "Non-monotone social learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 565-579.
    10. Chanelle Duley & Prasanna Gai, 2023. "Macroeconomic tail risk, currency crises and the inter‐war gold standard," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1551-1582, November.
    11. Willem L. Heeringa & Job Swank, 2019. "Heterogeneous Consumers, Credit Rationing, and Tax-Benefit Policies," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(2), pages 105-126, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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