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External impacts on the property-liability insurance cycle

  • Grace, Martin
  • Hotchkiss, Julie L.

Traditionally, underwriting performance is considered to be a function of industry-specific institutions. Using quarterly data from 1974 through 1990, we provide evidence of a long-run link between the general economy and the underwriting performance as measured by the combined ratio. Using cointegration techniques, we estimate the long-run relationship between the general economy as measured by real gross domestic product, the short-term interest rate, and inflation. We then estimate the short-run link between the industry and the general economy using vector auto-regression technniques and find that, although the property-liability insurance industry is linked to the long-run performance of the national economy, short-run shocks in economic variables have little effect on the combined ratio.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9825/1/MPRA_paper_9825.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9825.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Publication status: Published in The Journal of Risk and Insurance No. 4.Vol. 6(1995): pp. 738-754
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9825
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Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

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  1. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, June.
  2. Claudia Goldin & Robert A. Margo, 1989. "Wages, Prices, and Labor Markets Before the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 3198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Anne Gron, 1994. "Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 110-127, Spring.
  4. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, March.
  5. Janice L. Boucher, 1991. "Stationary representations, cointegration, and rational expectations with an application to the forward foreign exchange market," Working Paper 91-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
  7. Smith, Michael L, 1989. "Investment Returns and Yields to Holders of Insurance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 81-98, January.
  8. Harrington, Scott E & Danzon, Patricia M, 1994. "Price Cutting in Liability Insurance Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 511-38, October.
  9. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  10. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
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