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External impacts on the property-liability insurance cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Grace, Martin
  • Hotchkiss, Julie L.

Abstract

Traditionally, underwriting performance is considered to be a function of industry-specific institutions. Using quarterly data from 1974 through 1990, we provide evidence of a long-run link between the general economy and the underwriting performance as measured by the combined ratio. Using cointegration techniques, we estimate the long-run relationship between the general economy as measured by real gross domestic product, the short-term interest rate, and inflation. We then estimate the short-run link between the industry and the general economy using vector auto-regression technniques and find that, although the property-liability insurance industry is linked to the long-run performance of the national economy, short-run shocks in economic variables have little effect on the combined ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Grace, Martin & Hotchkiss, Julie L., 1995. "External impacts on the property-liability insurance cycle," MPRA Paper 9825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9825
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
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    5. Anne Gron, 1994. "Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 110-127, Spring.
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    8. Janice L. Boucher, 1991. "Stationary representations, cointegration, and rational expectations with an application to the forward foreign exchange market," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 91-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Harrington, Scott E & Danzon, Patricia M, 1994. "Price Cutting in Liability Insurance Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 511-538, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Kim, Kyeong Tae, 2015. "Optimal reinsurance and asset allocation under regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 37-47.
    2. Zou, Bin & Cadenillas, Abel, 2014. "Explicit solutions of optimal consumption, investment and insurance problems with regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 159-167.
    3. Faith R. Neale & Kevin L. Eastman & Pamela Peterson Drake, 2009. "Dynamics of the Market for Medical Malpractice Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 221-247.
    4. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783.
    5. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    6. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2012. "The Role of RBC, Hurricane Exposure, Bond Portfolio Duration, and Macroeconomic and Industry-wide Factors in Property–Liability Insolvency Prediction," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 723-750, September.
    8. Guo, Feng & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2013. "Identifying permanent and transitory risks in the Chinese property insurance market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 689-704.
    9. repec:scn:wnewec:y:2016:i:4:p:76-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chen-Ying Lee, 2014. "The effects of firm specific factors and macroeconomics on profitability of property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan," Journal of Business & Management (COES&RJ-JBM), , vol. 2(1), pages 221-227, January.
    11. Chen-Ying Lee, 2014. "The Effects of Firm Specific Factors and Macroeconomics on Profitability of Property-Liability Insurance Industry in Taiwan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(5), pages 681-691, May.
    12. Scott E. Harrington & Tong Yu, 2003. "Do Property-Casualty Insurance Underwriting Margins Have Unit Roots?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 715-733.
    13. repec:pal:gpprii:v:43:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1057_s41288-017-0063-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ronnie J. Phillips & David Nickerson, 2011. "Underwriting in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets: Regulation, Risk and Volatility," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-19, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    15. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "Cyclicity in the French Property," Working Papers 2014-47, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    16. Jiang Cheng & Mary A. Weiss, 2011. "The Regulatory Effect of Risk-Based Capital in Property-Liability Insurance," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-20, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    17. Denis Kessler, 2005. "La fin du cycle traditionnel en assurance et réassurance de dommages ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 80(3), pages 159-170.
    18. Jiang Cheng & Elyas Elyasiani & Jingyi (Jane) Jia, 2011. "Institutional Ownership Stability and Risk Taking: Evidence from the Life-Health Insurance Industry," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-14, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    19. Tetin, Ilya, 2015. "Underwriting cycle in Russia and macroeconomic indicators," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 65-83.
    20. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "How Do the Interest Rate and the Inflation Rate Affect the Non-Life Insurance Premiums ?," Working Papers 2014-282, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    21. Jiang, Shi-jie & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2012. "Dynamics of underwriting profits: Evidence from the U.S. insurance market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15.
    22. Bin Zou & Abel Cadenillas, 2014. "Explicit Solutions of Optimal Consumption, Investment and Insurance Problem with Regime Switching," Papers 1402.3562, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2014.
    23. Feng Guo & Hung-Gay Fung & Ying Huang, 2009. "The Dynamic Impact of Macro Shocks on Insurance Premiums," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 225-244, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    combined ratio; underwriting performance; vector autoregression; impulse response;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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