Chaos in the tourism industry
The paper presents an application of the chaos theory to tourism, a sector in which operators' choices are particularly elaborate and complex. The dynamics of the tourist industry are, in fact, the result of close interactions between units of production, tourist flows, local authorities and natural resources. These interactions do not necessarily lead to a regular trend in the development of the tourist industry as proposed by Butler; on the contrary, irregularities of various types are very possible. The model microfounds rigorously on both the demand and the supply side. Firms and tourists operate under the hypothesis of limited rationality, the former in an oligopolistic context, the latter on the basis of mechanisms of evolutionary selection. Although not exhaustive, the model forms a theoretical platform that can be easily adapted to hypotheses and situations that differ from those originally hypothesized. As a consequence, this paper presents a series of numerical simulations. The results show the chaotic nature of a tourist flow, which limits the practicability of measures introduced to stabilise the system. In their place, measures are needed that stimulate a continuous reshaping of the system in relation to the factors that tend to change it.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jorgen W. Weibull, 1997. "Evolutionary Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262731215, June.
- Roberto Cellini & Guido Candela, 2004.
"Investment in Tourism Market: A Dynamic Model of Differentiated Oligopoly,"
2004.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Guido Candela & Roberto Cellini, 2006. "Investment in Tourism Market: A Dynamic Model of Differentiated Oligopoly," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 35(1), pages 41-58, September.
- Marie-Antoinette Maupertuis & Sauveur Giannoni, 2005. "Environmental Quality and Long Run Tourism Development a Cyclical Perspective for Small Island Tourist Economies," Working Papers 2005.145, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Bisin, Alberto & Verdier, Thierry, 2001.
"The Economics of Cultural Transmission and the Dynamics of Preferences,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 298-319, April.
- Bisin, A. & Verdier, T., 1997. "The Economics of Cultural Transmission and the Dynamics of Preferences," DELTA Working Papers 97-03, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Currie, Martin & Kubin, Ingrid, 2006.
"Chaos in the core-periphery model,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 252-275, June.
- Brander, James A & Taylor, M Scott, 1998. "The Simple Economics of Easter Island: A Ricardo-Malthus Model of Renewable Resource Use," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 119-38, March.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-90068 is not listed on IDEAS
- Anderies, John M., 2000. "On modeling human behavior and institutions in simple ecological economic systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 393-412, December.
- Hernandez, Juan M. & Leon, Carmelo J., 2007. "The interactions between natural and physical capitals in the tourist lifecycle model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 184-193, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.