IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/88776.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labor Force Participation Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Epstein, Brendan

Abstract

It is well known that the U.S. labor force participation rate (LFP) is procyclical. I highlight that, in contrast, LFP is negatively correlated with labor productivity even though GDP and productivity are positively correlated. I show that these opposite correlations are explained by the differential dynamic adjustment of LFP given exoge- nous shocks to, alternatively, GDP and productivity. My analysis is guided by the theoretical underpinnings of the benchmark model of equilibrium unemployment. This guidance is important, as it helps reveal that the cyclical behavior of job vacancies explains a considerable fraction of the cyclical behavior of LFP.

Suggested Citation

  • Epstein, Brendan, 2018. "Labor Force Participation Dynamics," MPRA Paper 88776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88776
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88776/1/Paper%20LFP%20V5.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Krusell, Per & Mukoyama, Toshihiko & Rogerson, Richard & Sahin, Aysegül, 2011. "A three state model of worker flows in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1107-1133, May.
    3. Tripier, Fabien, 2004. "Can the labor market search model explain the fluctuations of allocations of time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 131-146, January.
    4. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    5. Veracierto, Marcelo, 2008. "On the cyclical behavior of employment, unemployment and labor force participation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1143-1157, September.
    6. David M. Arseneau & Sanjay K. Chugh, 2012. "Tax Smoothing in Frictional Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 926-985.
    7. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    8. Campolmi, Alessia & Gnocchi, Stefano, 2016. "Labor market participation, unemployment and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 17-29.
    9. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 5-34.
    10. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2012. "Is Labor Supply Important for Business Cycles?," NBER Working Papers 17779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hina Amber & Bezawit Beyene Chichaibelu, 2023. "Patterns and Causes of Female Labor Force Participation: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis for Pakistan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-31, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jochen Mankart & Rigas Oikonomou, 2017. "Household Search and the Aggregate Labour Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1735-1788.
    2. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Aysegul Sahin, 2020. "Gross Worker Flows and Fluctuations in the Aggregate Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 205-226, August.
    3. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    4. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2017. "Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3447-3476, November.
    5. Tüzemen, Didem, 2017. "Labor market dynamics with endogenous labor force participation and on-the-job search," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-51.
    6. Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2023. "Search Frictions, Labor Supply, and the Asymmetric Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 5-42, February.
    7. Alon Binyamini & Tali Larom, 2012. "Encouraging Participation in a Labor Market with Search and Matching Frictions," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2012.11, Bank of Israel.
    8. Isabel Cairo & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2022. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 197-216, January.
    9. Stefania Albanesi & Aysegul Sahin, 2018. "The Gender Unemployment Gap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 47-67, October.
    10. Noritaka Kudoh & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2021. "Robots and Unemployment," Working Papers SDES-2021-5, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised May 2021.
    11. Chen, Been-Lon & Lai, Chih-Fang, 2015. "Effects of labor taxes and unemployment compensation on labor supply in a search model with an endogenous labor force," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 300-317.
    12. Stefania Albanesi & Aysegul Sahin, 2018. "The Gender Unemployment Gap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 47-67, October.
    13. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    14. Isabel Cairó & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2020. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity," Working Papers 20-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Haefke, Christian & Reiter, Michael, 2011. "What Do Participation Fluctuations Tell Us About Labor Supply Elasticities?," IZA Discussion Papers 6039, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. A. Devulder, 2014. "Heterogeneity, Unemployment Benefits and Voluntary Labor Force Participation," Working papers 493, Banque de France.
    17. Nikolaos Kokonas & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2023. "Self-fulfilling labor wedge fluctuations and unemployment insurance," Discussion Papers 2313, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Kónya, István, 2016. "Munkapiaci áramlások Magyarországon és Európában [Labour-market flows in Hungary and Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 357-379.
    19. Carnicelli, Lauro, 2018. "Financial shocks and endogenous labor market participation," MPRA Paper 90254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Didem Tuzemen, 2012. "Labor market dynamics with endogenous labor force participation and on-the-job search," Research Working Paper RWP 12-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium unemployment; GDP; labor markets; procyclical; productivity; propagation; search and matching; vacancies; unemployment.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88776. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.