IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/74360.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Making Markowitz's Portfolio Optimization Theory Practically Useful

Author

Listed:
  • BAI, ZHIDONG
  • LIU, HUIXIA
  • WONG, WING-KEUNG

Abstract

The traditional estimated return for the Markowitz mean-variance optimization has been demonstrated to seriously depart from its theoretic optimal return. We prove that this phenomenon is natural and the estimated optimal return is always $\sqrt{\gamma}$ times larger than its theoretic counterpart where $\gamma = \frac 1{1-y}$ with $y$ as the ratio of the dimension to sample size. Thereafter, we develop new bootstrap-corrected estimations for the optimal return and its asset allocation and prove that these bootstrap-corrected estimates are proportionally consistent with their theoretic counterparts. Our theoretical results are further confirmed by our simulations, which show that the essence of the portfolio analysis problem could be adequately captured by our proposed approach. This greatly enhances the practical uses of the Markowitz mean-variance optimization procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Zhidong & Liu, Huixia & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Making Markowitz's Portfolio Optimization Theory Practically Useful," MPRA Paper 74360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74360
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74360/1/MPRA_paper_74360.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. S. Feldstein, 1969. "Mean-Variance Analysis in the Theory of Liquidity Preference and Portfolio Selection," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(1), pages 5-12.
    2. Frankfurter, George M. & Phillips, Herbert E. & Seagle, John P., 1971. "Portfolio Selection: The Effects of Uncertain Means, Variances, and Covariances," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1251-1262, December.
    3. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    4. Li, Hua & Bai, Zhidong & Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2022. "Spectrally-Corrected Estimation for High-Dimensional Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 133-150.
    5. Fathi Abid & Pui Lam Leung & Mourad Mroua & Wing Keung Wong, 2014. "International Diversification Versus Domestic Diversification: Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization and Stochastic Dominance Approaches," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Padberg, Manfred W, 1978. "Simple Criteria for Optimal Portfolio Selection: Tracing out the Efficient Frontier," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 296-302, March.
    7. Kan, Raymond & Zhou, Guofu, 2007. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 621-656, September.
    8. Yacine AÏT‐SAHALI & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1297-1351, August.
    9. Markowitz, Harry M & Perold, Andre F, 1981. "Portfolio Analysis with Factors and Scenarios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 871-877, September.
    10. Pafka, Szilárd & Kondor, Imre, 2003. "Noisy covariance matrices and portfolio optimization II," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 319(C), pages 487-494.
    11. Gabor Papp & Szilard Pafka & Maciej A. Nowak & Imre Kondor, 2005. "Random Matrix Filtering in Portfolio Optimization," Papers physics/0509235, arXiv.org.
    12. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    13. Duan Li & Wan‐Lung Ng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 387-406, July.
    14. Andre F. Perold, 1984. "Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(10), pages 1143-1160, October.
    15. Eugene F. Fama, 1965. "Portfolio Analysis in a Stable Paretian Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 404-419, January.
    16. Kumar Muthuraman & Sunil Kumar, 2006. "Multidimensional Portfolio Optimization With Proportional Transaction Costs," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 301-335, April.
    17. Mark Britten‐Jones, 1999. "The Sampling Error in Estimates of Mean‐Variance Efficient Portfolio Weights," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 655-671, April.
    18. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    19. Canner, Niko & Mankiw, N Gregory & Weil, David N, 1997. "An Asset Allocation Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 181-191, March.
    20. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
    21. Yusif Simaan, 1997. "Estimation Risk in Portfolio Selection: The Mean Variance Model Versus the Mean Absolute Deviation Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(10), pages 1437-1446, October.
    22. Bai, Zhidong & Li, Hua & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The best estimation for high-dimensional Markowitz mean-variance optimization," MPRA Paper 43862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Merton, Robert C., 1972. "An Analytic Derivation of the Efficient Portfolio Frontier," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 1851-1872, September.
    24. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420-420.
    25. Jianming Xia, 2005. "Mean–Variance Portfolio Choice: Quadratic Partial Hedging," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 533-538, July.
    26. Susanne Emmer & Claudia Klüppelberg & Ralf Korn, 2001. "Optimal Portfolios with Bounded Capital at Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 365-384, October.
    27. Kalman J. Cohen & Jerry A. Pogue, 1967. "An Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Portfolio-Selection Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 166-166.
    28. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Padberg, Manfred W, 1976. "Simple Criteria for Optimal Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(5), pages 1341-1357, December.
    29. Pafka, Szilárd & Kondor, Imre, 2004. "Estimated correlation matrices and portfolio optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 343(C), pages 623-634.
    30. G. Hanoch & H. Levy, 1969. "The Efficiency Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(3), pages 335-346.
    31. Sharpe, William F., 1971. "A Linear Programming Approximation for the General Portfolio Analysis Problem," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1263-1275, December.
    32. Jér^me Detemple & Marcel Rindisbacher, 2005. "Closed‐Form Solutions For Optimal Portfolio Selection With Stochastic Interest Rate And Investment Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 539-568, October.
    33. Jianming Xia & Jia‐An Yan, 2006. "Markowitz'S Portfolio Optimization In An Incomplete Market," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 203-216, January.
    34. Jonsson, Dag, 1982. "Some limit theorems for the eigenvalues of a sample covariance matrix," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-38, March.
    35. Hakansson, Nils H., 1972. "Mean-Variance Analysis in a Finite World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 1873-1880, September.
    36. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    37. Jorion, Philippe, 1985. "International Portfolio Diversification with Estimation Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(3), pages 259-278, July.
    38. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-342.
    39. Hiroshi Konno & Hiroaki Yamazaki, 1991. "Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model and Its Applications to Tokyo Stock Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 519-531, May.
    40. Stone, Bernell K., 1973. "A Linear Programming Formulation of the General Portfolio Selection Problemâ€," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 621-636, September.
    41. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    42. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    43. Peter Lakner & Lan Ma Nygren, 2006. "Portfolio Optimization With Downside Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 283-299, April.
    44. Leung, Pui-Lam & Ng, Hon-Yip & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 85-95.
    45. William F. Sharpe, 1967. "A Linear Programming Algorithm for Mutual Fund Portfolio Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(7), pages 499-510, March.
    46. Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim & Markowitz, Harry M, 1984. "Mean-Variance versus Direct Utility Maximization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 47-61, March.
    47. Cass, David & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "The structure of investor preferences and asset returns, and separability in portfolio allocation: A contribution to the pure theory of mutual funds," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 122-160, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Zhifeng & Wen, Fenghua, 2018. "Some improved sparse and stable portfolio optimization problems," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 46-52.
    2. Paweł Sakowski & Anna Turovtseva, 2020. "Verification of Investment Opportunities on the Cryptocurrency Market within the Markowitz Framework," Working Papers 2020-41, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, Zhidong & Li, Hua & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The best estimation for high-dimensional Markowitz mean-variance optimization," MPRA Paper 43862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Wong, W.-K., 2015. "Informatics, Data Mining, Econometrics and Financial Economics: A Connection," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Wing Keung Wong & Thomas C. Chiang, 2021. "The maximum-return-and-minimum-volatility effect: evidence from choosing risky and riskless assets to form a portfolio," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 97-122, June.
    4. Li, Hua & Bai, Zhidong & Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2022. "Spectrally-Corrected Estimation for High-Dimensional Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 133-150.
    5. Leung, Pui-Lam & Ng, Hon-Yip & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 85-95.
    6. Chen, Binbin & Huang, Shih-Feng & Pan, Guangming, 2015. "High dimensional mean–variance optimization through factor analysis," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 140-159.
    7. Arenas Parra, M. & Bilbao Terol, A. & Rodriguez Uria, M. V., 2001. "A fuzzy goal programming approach to portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 287-297, January.
    8. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Merton, Robert, 1990. "Capital market theory and the pricing of financial securities," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 497-581, Elsevier.
    10. Haim Levy, 2010. "The CAPM is Alive and Well: A Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(1), pages 43-71, January.
    11. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    12. Kai-Yin Woo & Chulin Mai & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Review on Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-51, March.
    13. Kondor, Imre & Pafka, Szilard & Nagy, Gabor, 2007. "Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1545-1573, May.
    14. Wojtek Michalowski & Włodzimierz Ogryczak, 2001. "Extending the MAD portfolio optimization model to incorporate downside risk aversion," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(3), pages 185-200, April.
    15. Bao, Te & Diks, Cees & Li, Hao, 2018. "A generalized CAPM model with asymmetric power distributed errors with an application to portfolio construction," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 611-621.
    16. Istvan Varga-Haszonits & Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor, 2016. "Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization," Papers 1606.08679, arXiv.org.
    17. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, "undated". "Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: Explanatory or Descriptive? A Historical Survey with Some Methodological Reflections," DEOS Working Papers 1331, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    18. Merton, Robert C., 1993. "On the microeconomic theory of investment under uncertainty," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 13, pages 601-669, Elsevier.
    19. Varga-Haszonits, Istvan & Caccioli, Fabio & Kondor, Imre, 2016. "Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68955, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, 2012. "Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: A Historical Survey with Methodological Reflections," DEOS Working Papers 1226, Athens University of Economics and Business.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Portfolio Allocation; Mean-Variance Optimization; Large Random Matrix; Bootstrap Method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.