Transformaciona kriza i perspektive privrede Srbije u epohi globalizacije i finansijske krize[Transformational crisis and perspectives of Serbian economy in the era of globalization and financial crisis]

English Abstract: Paper considers the theoretic foundations, results and perspectives of transition process in Serbian economy. The foundations of that process were the postulats of neoclassical economics, the mainstream in recent world and domestic economic thought. They determined the goal, the methodology, and the ideological basis of transition process, and resulted especially in Washington Consensus, originally formulated by John Williamson in 1989, and that was implemented other among in eastern and south-eastern Europe. The implemented neoclassical proces took the form of either shock-therapy or gradualism, however each approach involved their combination. The results of the reforms, based on Consensus, showed, with some exceptions, that these countries realized deep and long-term economic fall, followed by similar processes in other spheres. Contrary to ordinary opinions that transition crisis show as result of inconsistency in reforms taking, this is normaly its result. As an analogue is the Morgenthau’s plan for West Germany observed, that has promoted Germany to industrial disarmament, and that would lead to its poverty and its transformation into raw material basis for the developed economies, and to impossibility of survival of the existing number of population. Fortunately for the Germany, Morgenthau’s plan was abandoned and Marshall’s plan was introduced. It lead to industrial renewal of Germany. For the transition countries it is also necessary, considering the practice and basic principles of the Other Canon, which have they origins as far as from the economic policy of the king Henry VII, to acess re-industrialization in the same way, which is the necessity for renewall of economies, and for overcoming the long-term crisis. Serbian Abstract: U radu se razmatraju teorijski osnovi, rezultati i perspektive procesa tranzicije privrede Srbije. Osnove ovog procesa činili su postulati neoklasične ekonomije, glavnog toka u današnjoj svetskoj i domaćoj ekonomskoj misli. Oni su opredelili cilj, metodologiju i ideološku osnovu tranzicionog procesa, i rezultovali su Vašingtonskim konsenzusom, kojeg je originalno formulisao Džon Vilijamson 1989, i koji je primenjen i na zemlje istočne i jugoistočne Evrope. Primenjeni neoklasični model uzimao je oblike šok-terapije ili gradualizma, ali je ipak svaki pristup inkorporirao njihovu kombinaciju. Rezultati reformi u ovim zemljama, zasnovanih na Konsenzusu, pokazuju, uz manje izuzetke, dubok i dugotrajan ekonomski pad, uz negativne procese i u drugim sferama. Nasuprot uobičajenim mišljenjima da je tranziciona kriza rezultat nedoslednosti u sprovođenju reformi, ona je upravo suprotno njihov zakonomeran rezultat. Kao analog ističe se Morgentauov plan za Z. Nemačku, kojim je nakon Drugog svetskog rata bilo predviđeno da ona bude industrijski razoružana, što bi vodilo njenom siromašenju i pretvaranju u sirovinski dodatak razvijenim privredama, ali time i onemogućilo opstanak tadašnjeg broja stanovnika. Na sreću po Nemačku, Morgentauov plan je zamenjen Maršalovim koji joj je obezbedio industrijsku obnovu. I za tranzicione zemlje potrebno je, u skladu s postavkama i praksom Drugog kanona, koji potiče od ekonomske politike kralja Henrija VII, pristupiti reindustrijalizaciji, kao nužnom uslovu oživljavanja privreda i izlaska iz dugotrajne krize.