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Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Structural Macroeconomic Shocks in Developing Countries: An Empirical Investigation

  • Barhoumi, Karim

This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through in 12 developing countries during the period 1980-2001 by adopting a new formulation . Rather than considering the traditional approach based on the exogenous exchange rate movement through correlation between exchange rate and prices, we focus on fundamental macroeconomic shocks that a¤ect both exchange rate and prices. In order to do that, we employ long-run restrictions à la Blanchard and Quah (1989) to identify the di¤erent shocks through an open economic macroeconomic model (ISLM framework). We use two empirical methodology : Structural VECM methodology used by Jang and Ogaki (2004) and the common trends approach proposed by Warne et al (1992). This allows us to calculate the pass-through as the responses of the exchange rate, CPI and import prices to the supply, the relative demand, the nominal and the foreign prices shocks. We show that the pass-through ratio in developing countries is di¤erent when considering di¤erent structural shocks.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6573.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision: 13 Oct 2007
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6573
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  1. Rogers, John H., 1999. "Monetary shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 269-288, December.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "A Theory of the Currency Denomination of International Trade," Working Papers 01.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  4. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  5. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
  6. Jang, Kyungho & Ogaki, Masao, 2004. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates: A structural vector error correction model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 99-114, March.
  7. Jamel JOUINI & Karim BARHOUMI, 2008. "Revisiting the decline in the exchange rate pass-through: further evidence from developing countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(20), pages 1-10.
  8. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  9. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
  10. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities between the G3 Economies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 548-583, December.
  12. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2002. "A Theory of Currency Denomination of International Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3120, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1998. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with an intercept," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,51, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  16. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
  17. Kyungho Jang, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis with Long Run Restrictions on Error Correction Models," Working Papers 01-04, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  18. Jang, Kyungho, 2006. "An alternative approach to estimation of structural vector error correction models with long-run restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 126-131, January.
  19. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  21. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
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