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Unauthorized Immigration and Electoral Outcomes

Author

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  • Baerg, Nicole Rae
  • Hotchkiss, Julie L.
  • Quispe-Agnoli, Myriam

Abstract

How do inflows of unauthorized immigrants shape elections? Political economy theories often yield competing predictions and mixed empirical results. The main hurdle of empirically evaluating the impact of unauthorized immigrants on election outcomes is finding reliable data that can measure unauthorized immigration flows over time. Using a unique methodology for identifying undocumented workers across counties in the state of Georgia in the United States, we find a positive relationship between the share of the county's workforce that is unauthorized and the share of votes going to Republicans in elections. Furthermore, we show that this effect is more pronounced for the presence of unauthorized immigrants than Hispanics; is stronger in counties with higher median household income; and is substantively larger in U.S. Congressional elections than Gubernatorial or Senatorial elections. We discuss which political economy theories are most consistent with this set of findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Baerg, Nicole Rae & Hotchkiss, Julie L. & Quispe-Agnoli, Myriam, 2014. "Unauthorized Immigration and Electoral Outcomes," MPRA Paper 59864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59864
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthews, Donald R. & Prothro, James W., 1963. "Political Factors And Negro Voter Registration In The South," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 355-367, June.
    2. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda & Riccardo Puglisi, 2017. "Illegal immigration and media exposure: evidence on individual attitudes," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, December.
    3. Neil Malhotra & Yotam Margalit & Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, 2013. "Economic Explanations for Opposition to Immigration: Distinguishing between Prevalence and Conditional Impact," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(2), pages 391-410, April.
    4. Gordon H. Hanson & Kenneth Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2007. "Public Finance And Individual Preferences Over Globalization Strategies," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 1-33, March.
    5. Christopher F Baum, 2008. "Stata tip 63: Modeling proportions," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 8(2), pages 299-303, June.
    6. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
    7. Giovanni Facchini & Anna Maria Mayda, 2009. "Does the Welfare State Affect Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants? Evidence across Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(2), pages 295-314, May.
    8. George J. Borjas, 2003. "The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 9755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mayda, Anna Maria & Peri, Giovanni & Steingress, Walter, 2015. "Immigration to the U.S.: A problem for the Republicans or the Democrats?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11001, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Anna Maria Mayda & Giovanni Peri & Walter Steingress, 2018. "The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 24510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; International Migration; Undocumented; Unauthorized;

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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