IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/59727.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Links Between Commodity Futures And Stock Market: Diversification Benefits, Financialization And Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Demiralay, Sercan
  • Ulusoy, Veysel

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze time-varying correlations between commodity markets and S&P 500 index, employing a recent and novel technique: asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model. Using weekly data from January 3, 1992 to December 27, 2013, we provide evidence of highly volatile correlations, which substantially increase after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. We also find that conditional correlations and variances are positively linked in overall, which implies deterioration in diversification benefits. Finally, we examine the impacts of financial crises on the conditional correlations and find that external shocks have different effects on the correlations. Our results have potential implications for investors, portfolio managers, commodity producers and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Demiralay, Sercan & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2014. "Links Between Commodity Futures And Stock Market: Diversification Benefits, Financialization And Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 59727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59727
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/59727/1/MPRA_paper_59727.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2012. "U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 112-128.
    2. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    3. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    4. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    5. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    6. Cheung, C. Sherman & Miu, Peter, 2010. "Diversification benefits of commodity futures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 451-474, December.
    7. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    10. Lin Gao & Lu Liu, 2014. "The Volatility Behavior and Dependence Structure of Commodity Futures and Stocks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 93-101, January.
    11. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
    12. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    13. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    14. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    15. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    16. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sania Wadud & Robert D. Durand & Marc Gronwald, 2021. "Connectedness between the Crude Oil Futures and Equity Markets during the Pre- and Post-Financialisation Eras," CESifo Working Paper Series 9202, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Urom, Christian & Anochiwa, Lasbrey & Yuni, Denis & Idume, Gabriel, 2019. "Asymmetric linkages among precious metals, global equity and bond yields: The role of volatility and business cycle factors," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    2. Ali, Sajid & Raza, Naveed & Vinh Vo, Xuan & Le, Van, 2022. "Modelling the joint dynamics of financial assets using MGARCH family models: Insights into hedging and diversification strategies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. & Huo, Rui, 2021. "Volatility transmissions across international oil market, commodity futures and stock markets: Empirical evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    6. Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Imhotep Paul Alagidede & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2023. "Nonlinearity in the causality and systemic risk spillover between the OPEC oil and GCC equity markets: a pre- and post-financial crisis analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1027-1103, September.
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-561 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: volatility spillovers and implications for portfolio management," MPRA Paper 87637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Wen, Xiaoqian, 2014. "Dependence of stock and commodity futures markets in China: Implications for portfolio investment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 183-200.
    10. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Riadh Abed & Amna Zardoub, 2019. "On the co-movements among gold and other financial markets: a multivariate time-varying asymmetric approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 701-719, October.
    12. Raza, Naveed & Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Syed Ali, 2018. "Do commodities effectively hedge real estate risk? A multi-scale asymmetric DCC approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 10-29.
    13. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Tziogkidis, Panagiotis, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and cross-hedging between gold, oil and equities: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 440-453.
    14. Kuang, Wei, 2023. "The equity-oil hedge: A comparison between volatility and alternative risk frameworks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    15. Yu, Honghai & Du, Donglei & Fang, Libing & Yan, Panpan, 2018. "Risk contribution of crude oil to industry stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 179-199.
    16. Martin Enilov & Giorgio Fazio & Atanu Ghoshray, 2023. "Global connectivity between commodity prices and national stock markets: A time‐varying MIDAS analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2607-2619, July.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Junttila, Juha & Pesonen, Juho & Raatikainen, Juhani, 2018. "Commodity market based hedging against stock market risk in times of financial crisis: The case of crude oil and gold," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 255-280.
    19. de Boyrie Maria E. & Pavlova Ivelina, 2018. "Equities and Commodities Comovements: Evidence from Emerging Markets," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(3), pages 1-14, September.
    20. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li, 2016. "The relationships between petroleum and stock returns: An asymmetric dynamic equi-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 453-463.
    21. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    22. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2015. "Precious metals, cereal, oil and stock market linkages and portfolio risk management: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 340-358.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity indices; S&P 500; Diversification; Financial Crises; ADCC-GARCH Model; Financialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59727. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.