Testing Augmented Wagner’s Law for Nigeria Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling Techniques
Wagner’s Law is the first model of public spending in the history of public finance. The study tests the validity of Wagner’s Law that there is a long-run tendency for public expenditure to grow relative to national income. This implies that public expenditure can be treated as an endogenous factor, not a cause of growth in national income. In contrast, Keynesian hypothesis treats public expenditure as an exogenous factor. “Augmented” version of Wagner’s Law, where public deficit appears as further explanatory variable, is also investigated. Assessing the empirical evidence of these hypotheses in Nigeria, for the period 1970-2012, the study employed Johansen Cointegration Techniques with its associated Error Correction Model for the short run dynamics. We found bi-directional causal relation for the short run dynamics for five out of seven formulations while the long run empirical evidence seems to be most favourable to Wagner’s hypothesis rather than the Keynesian one, therefore suggesting that causality run from real income to government expenditure.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer S., 2003.
"Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 567-583, September.
- Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer, 2003. "Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria," MPRA Paper 1115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2003. "Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel and Syria," Working Papers 163, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Nadeem Burney, 2002. "Wagner's hypothesis: evidence from Kuwait using cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 49-57.
- Emmanuel Ziramba, 2008. "Wagner'S Law: An Econometric Test For South Africa, 1960-2006," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(4), pages 596-606, December.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Nielsen, Ingrid & Smyth, Russell, 2008.
"Panel data, cointegration, causality and Wagner's law: Empirical evidence from Chinese provinces,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-307, June.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Panel Data, Cointegration, Causality And Wagner'S Law: Empirical Evidence From Chinese Provinces," Monash Economics Working Papers 01/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Abizadeh, Sohrab & Yousefi, Mahmood, 1998. "An empirical analysis of South Korea's economic development and public expenditures growth," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 687-700.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
- Tsangyao Chang, 2002. "An econometric test of Wagner's law for six countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1157-1169.
- Ram, Rati, 1986. "Causality between Income and Government Expenditure: A Broad International Perspective," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 41(3), pages 393-414.
- A. F. Al-Faris, 2002. "Public expenditure and economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1187-1193.
- Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Singh, Balvir & Sahni, Balbir S, 1984. "Causality between Public Expenditure and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(4), pages 630-44, November.
- Murthy, N R Vasudeva, 1994. "Wagner's Law, Spurious in Mexico or Misspecification: A Reply," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 49(2), pages 295-303.
- Chiung-Ju Huang, 2006. "Government Expenditures In China And Taiwan: Do They Follow Wagner¡¯S Law?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 139-148, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2003," Public Economics 0502013, EconWPA.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Dakurah, A. Henry & Davies, Stephen P. & Sampath, Rajan K., 2001. "Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 651-658, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.