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Seigniorage Revenue and Inflation Tax: Testing Optimal Seigniorage Theory for Turkish Economy


  • dogru, bulent


The goal of this study is to test the implication of Mankiv’s (1987) optimal seigniorage theory suggesting that in the long run higher tax rates are associated with higher inflation rates and higher nominal interest rates for Turkish Economy using time series dataset for the time period 1980-2011.We examine the long run relationship between nominal interest rates, inflation and tax revenue. For this purpose, we estimate the Mankiw’soptimal seigniorage model for Turkish Economy with the cointegration and vector error correction methods (VECM) techniques. According to econometric result, in long run there is a causality relationship from inflation and tax revenue to nominal interest rates. However, in short run we could not find any evidence that support the causality from inflation and tax revenue to nominal interest rates

Suggested Citation

  • dogru, bulent, 2013. "Seigniorage Revenue and Inflation Tax: Testing Optimal Seigniorage Theory for Turkish Economy," MPRA Paper 47885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47885

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    4. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1987. "The optimal collection of seigniorage : Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-341, September.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 1990. "Premature Liberalization, Incomplete Stabilization: the Ozal Decade in Turkey," NBER Working Papers 3300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Levent, Korap, 2006. "Seigniorage revenue and Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 20106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Friedman, Milton, 1971. "Government Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 846-856, July-Aug..
    9. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
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    More about this item


    seigniorage and inflation tax; optimal seigniorage theory; Turkish economy; error correction model; cointegration analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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