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Business cycles and crime. the case of Argentina

Author

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  • Cerro, Ana Maria
  • Michel Rivero, Andrés

Abstract

This study focus on the relationship between crime and business cycle in Argentina, at national and provincial level, using monthly time series for the period 1999-2008. For that end we examine the presence of common factors (interpreted as cyclical components) driving the dynamics of a set of types of crimes and monthly economic activity indicators (EMAE and ISAP). By means of Dynamic Factor Models we identify which type of crime is related to business cycle and if these crimes are leading, lagging or coincident. We find a strong counter-cyclical relationship between total and property crime rates and its typologies and business cycle. Additionally these series are slightly lagged with respect to business cycle. On the other hand, crimes against persons are found to be pro-cyclical and coincident.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerro, Ana Maria & Michel Rivero, Andrés, 2012. "Business cycles and crime. the case of Argentina," MPRA Paper 44515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44515
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44515/1/MPRA_paper_44515.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters,in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
    3. Corman, Hope & Joyce, Theodore & Lovitch, Norman, 1987. "Crime, Deterrence and the Business Cycle in New York City: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 695-700, November.
    4. Robert Witt & Alan Clarke & Nigel Fielding, 1998. "Common trends and common cycles in regional crime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1407-1412.
    5. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin, 2015. "Crime and Economic Incentives," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 389-408, August.
    6. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    7. C. Detotto & E. Otranto, 2010. "Cycles in Crime and Economy: Leading, Lagging and Coincident Behaviors," Working Paper CRENoS 201023, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. Philip J. Cook, 2008. "Assessing Urban Crime And Its Control: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 13781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Loureiro, Paulo R.A. & Sachsida, Adolfo, 2005. "Crime and social interactions: a developing country case study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 311-318, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Typologies of Crime; Business Cycles; Dynamic Factors Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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