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Business cycles and crime. the case of Argentina

  • Cerro, Ana Maria
  • Michel Rivero, Andrés

This study focus on the relationship between crime and business cycle in Argentina, at national and provincial level, using monthly time series for the period 1999-2008. For that end we examine the presence of common factors (interpreted as cyclical components) driving the dynamics of a set of types of crimes and monthly economic activity indicators (EMAE and ISAP). By means of Dynamic Factor Models we identify which type of crime is related to business cycle and if these crimes are leading, lagging or coincident. We find a strong counter-cyclical relationship between total and property crime rates and its typologies and business cycle. Additionally these series are slightly lagged with respect to business cycle. On the other hand, crimes against persons are found to be pro-cyclical and coincident.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44515/1/MPRA_paper_44515.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44515.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44515
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  1. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
  2. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
  3. Corman, Hope & Joyce, Theodore & Lovitch, Norman, 1987. "Crime, Deterrence and the Business Cycle in New York City: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 695-700, November.
  4. Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169.
  5. C. Detotto & E. Otranto, 2010. "Cycles in Crime and Economy: Leading, Lagging and Coincident Behaviors," Working Paper CRENoS 201023, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  6. Philip J. Cook, 2008. "Assessing Urban Crime And Its Control: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 13781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Loureiro, Paulo R.A. & Sachsida, Adolfo, 2005. "Crime and social interactions: a developing country case study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 311-318, May.
  8. Robert Witt & Alan Clarke & Nigel Fielding, 1998. "Common trends and common cycles in regional crime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1407-1412.
  9. Steve Machin & Costas Meghir, 2000. "Crime and economic incentives," IFS Working Papers W00/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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