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How Crime can Affect Economic Performance through the Application of an ECM-Model: the Case of Guatemala

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  • Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo

Abstract

Crime has a potentially large impact on economic growth but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to set forth a model – the economics of crime monitoring model (ECM-Model) – to evaluate the impact of crime on economic performance. The model is based on five basic indicators – (i) the total crime frequency rate (β); (ii) the national crime vulnerability rate (μT); (iii) the crime devastation magnitude rate (λ); (iv) the economic desgrowth rate (δ); (v) and the crime vulnerability surface (VV-Surface). In addition, this research applies the ECM-Model in the case of Guatemala to evaluate how crime affects economic performance in a small developing country.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo, 2013. "How Crime can Affect Economic Performance through the Application of an ECM-Model: the Case of Guatemala," MPRA Paper 44445, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Feb 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44445
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters,in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Costa, Antonio Maria, 2010. "The economics of crime: A discipline to be invented and a Nobel Prize to be awarded," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 648-661, September.
    3. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Yap, Su Fei, 2013. "The origins and evolution of policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-182.
    4. Angela K. Dills & Jeffrey A. Miron & Garrett Summers, 2010. "What Do Economists Know about Crime?," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons for and from Latin America, pages 269-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cornwell, Christopher & Trumbull, William N, 1994. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 360-366, May.
    6. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo, 2011. "Policy modeling: Definition, classification and evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 523-536, July.
    7. Passell, Peter & Taylor, John B, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 445-451, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Violence; economics of crime; economic desgrowth; Guatemala; Econographicology;

    JEL classification:

    • Y20 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Introductions and Prefaces - - - Introductions and Prefaces

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