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How Crime can Affect Economic Performance through the Application of an ECM-Model: the Case of Guatemala

  • Ruiz Estrada, M.A.

Crime has a potentially large impact on economic growth but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of this paper is to set forth a model – the economics of crime monitoring model (ECM-Model) – to evaluate the impact of crime can affect economic performance. The model is based on five basic indicators – (i) the total crime frequency rate (β); (ii) the national crime vulnerability rate (μT); (iii) the crime devastation magnitude rate (λ); (iv) the economic desgrowth rate (δ); (v) and the crime vulnerability surface (VV-Surface). In addition, this research applies the ECM-Model in the case of Guatemala to evaluate how crime affects economic performance on small developing country.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44367.

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Date of creation: 14 Feb 2013
Date of revision: 14 Feb 2013
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44367
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  1. Cornwell, Christopher & Trumbull, William N, 1994. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 360-66, May.
  2. Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169.
  3. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo, 2011. "Policy modeling: Definition, classification and evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 523-536, July.
  4. Costa, Antonio Maria, 2010. "The economics of crime: A discipline to be invented and a Nobel Prize to be awarded," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 648-661, September.
  5. Passell, Peter & Taylor, John B, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Another View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 445-51, June.
  6. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Yap, Su Fei, 2013. "The origins and evolution of policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-182.
  7. Angela K. Dills & Jeffrey A. Miron & Garrett Summers, 2008. "What Do Economists Know About Crime?," NBER Working Papers 13759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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