Probability and social science : methodologial relationships between the two approaches ?
This work examines in depth the methodological relationships that probability and statistics have maintained with the social sciences. It covers both the history of thought and current methods. First, it examines in detail the history of the different paradigms and axioms for probability, from their emergence in the seventeenth century up to the most recent developments of the three major concepts: objective, subjective and logicist probability. It shows the statistical inference they permit, different applications to social sciences and the main problems they encounter. In the other side, from social sciences—particularly population sciences— to probability, it shows the different uses they made of probabilistic concepts during their history, from the seventeenth century, according to their paradigms: cross-sectional, longitudinal, event-history, hierarchical, contextual and multilevel approaches. While the ties may have seemed loose at times, they have more often been very close: some advances in probability were driven by the search for answers to questions raised by the social sciences; conversely, the latter have made progress thanks to advances in probability. This dual approach sheds new light on the historical development of the social sciences, probability and statistics, and on the enduring relevance of their links. It permits also to solve a number of methodological problems encountered all along their history.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
- David R. Bellhouse, 2011. "A new look at Halley's life table," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(3), pages 823-832, 07.
- Bateman, Bradley W., 1987. "Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 97-119, April.
- Ayton, Peter, 1997. "How to Be IncoherentandSeductive: Bookmakers' Odds and Support Theory," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 99-115, October.
- repec:cai:popine:popu_p1957_12n1_0142 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
- repec:cai:popine:popu_p1991_46n1_0104 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hanson T. & Johnson W.O., 2002. "Modeling Regression Error With a Mixture of Polya Trees," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1020-1033, December.
- repec:cai:poeine:pope_1001_0117 is not listed on IDEAS
- Grether, David M & Plott, Charles R, 1979. "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 623-638, September.
- Grether, David M. & Plott, Charles R., "undated". "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon," Working Papers 152, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Courgeau, Daniel, 2007. "Multilevel synthesis. From the group to the individual," MPRA Paper 43189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Zarkos, Spyros G, 1999. "R: Yet Another Econometric Programming Environment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 319-329, May-June.
- Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279.
- Hooten, Mevin B. & Wikle, Christopher K., 2010. "Statistical Agent-Based Models for Discrete Spatio-Temporal Systems," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 236-248.
- Henri Caussinus & Daniel Courgeau, 2010. "Estimer l'âge sans le mesurer en paléodémographie," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 65(1), pages 117-145. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43102. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.