IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/ecnphi/v3y1987i01p97-119_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability

Author

Listed:
  • Bateman, Bradley W.

Abstract

One of the most actively discussed aspects of Keynes's thought during the last decade has been his concern with uncertainty and probability theory. As the concerns of current macroeconomic theorists have turned increasingly to the effects of expectations and uncertainty, interest has grown in the fact that Keynes was the author of A Treatise on Probability (1921) and that uncertainty plays a prominent role in Chapter 12 of The General Theory as well as in three 1937 papers in which he summarized The General Theory's main point. Not surprisingly, though, there has been very little agreement in this recent discussion about exactly what the significance of Keynes's early work in probability was to his later work as an economist, or about what the roles of uncertainty and expectations are in The General Theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Bateman, Bradley W., 1987. "Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 97-119, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:ecnphi:v:3:y:1987:i:01:p:97-119_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0266267100002753/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Arena & Eric Nasica, 2021. "Keynes's Methodology and the Analysis of Economic Agent Behavior in a Complex World," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-10, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. André Lapidus, 2020. "Why are philosophers more often right than others ? David Hume and general rules [David Hume et les règles générales : Pourquoi les philosophes ont-ils plus raison que les autres ?]," Post-Print hal-01714256, HAL.
    3. Carlos da Silva & Matías Vernengo, 2008. "The Decline of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: Explaining the "Fear of Floating"," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 64-79.
    4. Roberto Marchionatti, 2010. "J. M. Keynes, thinker of economic complexity," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 18(2), pages 115-146.
    5. Nicolas Piluso, 2015. "Un examen critique des liens entre le Traité des probabilités et la Théorie générale de Keynes," Post-Print hal-01399077, HAL.
    6. Michaël Lainé, 2016. "Uncertainty, Probability and Animal Spirit [Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux]," Post-Print hal-02942874, HAL.
    7. B. W. Bateman, 1989. ""Human Logic" and Keynes's Economics: A Comment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 63-67, Jan-Mar.
    8. Muchlinski, Elke, 2011. "Die Rezeption der John Maynard Keynes Manuskripte von 1904 bis 1911. Anregungen für die deutschsprachige Diskussion," Discussion Papers 2011/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Courgeau, Daniel, 2012. "Probability and social science : methodologial relationships between the two approaches ?," MPRA Paper 43102, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alberto Feduzi, 2010. "On Keynes's conception of the Weight of Evidence," Post-Print hal-00870185, HAL.
    11. E. G. Winslow, 1989. "'Human Logic' and Keynes's Economics: A Reply," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 67-70, Jan-Mar.
    12. Bateman, Bradley W., 2021. "Introduction to Symposium: Celebrating the Centenary of Keynes’s Treatise on Probability," OSF Preprints ftr5g, Center for Open Science.
    13. Feduzi, Alberto, 2010. "On Keynes's conception of the weight of evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 338-351, November.
    14. Rivot, Sylvie, 2021. "Reading Keynes’s policy papers through the prism of his Treatise on Probability: information, expectations and revision of probabilities in economic policy," OSF Preprints s5qp9, Center for Open Science.
    15. Michaël Lainé, 2016. "Uncertainty, Probability and Animal Spirit: The Ontology, Epistemology and Microeconomics of Investment of Keynes’s Theory [Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux]," Post-Print hal-04265018, HAL.
    16. Michaël Lainé, 2014. "Esprits animaux et habitus : convergences et approfondissements," Post-Print hal-04264967, HAL.
    17. Roger Koppl, 1991. "Retrospectives: Animal Spirits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 203-210, Summer.
    18. Christophe Lavialle, 2001. "L'épistémologie de Keynes et "l'hypothèse Wittgenstein" : La cohérence logique de la Théorie Générale de l'emploi, de l'intérêt et de la monnaie," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(1), pages 25-64.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:ecnphi:v:3:y:1987:i:01:p:97-119_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/eap .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.