A Satiscing Alternative to Prospect Theory
In this paper, we axiomatize a target-based model of choice that allows decision makers to be both risk averse and risk seeking, depending on the payoff's position relative to a pre- specified target. The approach can be viewed as a hybrid model, capturing in spirit two celebrated ideas: first, the satisficing concept of Simon (1955); second, the switch between risk aversion and risk seeking popularized by the prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979). Our axioms are simple and intuitive; in order to be implemented in practice, our approach requires only the specification of an aspiration level. We show that this approach is dual to a known approach using risk measures, thereby allowing us to connect to existing theory. Though our approach is intended to be normative, we also show that it resolves the classical paradoxes of Allais (1953) and Ellsberg (1961), neither of which can be explained by expected utility theory.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mao, James C T, 1970. "Survey of Capital Budgeting: Theory and Practice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 349-60, May.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1996.
Games and Economic Behavior,
Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, July.
- Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2006.
"An Economic Index of Riskiness,"
321307000000000585, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2006. "An Economic Index of Riskiness," Working Papers 2006-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2007. "An Economic Index of Riskiness," Discussion Paper Series dp446, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
- Roberto Serrano & Robert J. Aumann, 2007. "An Economic Index Of Riskiness," Working Papers wp2007_0706, CEMFI.
- Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2007. "An economic index of riskiness," Working Papers 2007-08, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
- Robert J. Aumann & Roberto Serrano, 2007. "An Economic Index of Riskiness," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000836, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006.
"A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
- Koszegi, Botond & Rabin, Matthew, 2004. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0w82b6nm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2004. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0407001, EconWPA.
- Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2005. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000341, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006.
"Reference-Dependent Risk Attitudes,"
122247000000001267, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
- De Giorgi, Enrico, 2005.
"Reward-risk portfolio selection and stochastic dominance,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 895-926, April.
- Enrico De Giorgi, . "Reward-Risk Portfolio Selection and Stochastic Dominance," IEW - Working Papers 121, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Machina, Mark J, 1982.
""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 277-323, March.
- Mark J Machina, 1982. ""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7650, David K. Levine.
- Mark J. Machina, 2009. "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 385-92, March.
- Enrico Diecidue & Jeroen van de Ven, 2008. "Aspiration Level, Probability Of Success And Failure, And Expected Utility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 683-700, 05.
- Peter Wakker & Daniel Deneffe, 1996. "Eliciting von Neumann-Morgenstern Utilities When Probabilities Are Distorted or Unknown," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(8), pages 1131-1150, August.
- Nishant Dass & Massimo Massa & Rajdeep Patgiri, 2008. "Mutual Funds and Bubbles: The Surprising Role of Contractual Incentives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 51-99, January.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- R. Rockafellar & Stan Uryasev & Michael Zabarankin, 2006. "Generalized deviations in risk analysis," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 51-74, 01.
- Bosi, G. & Mehta, G. B., 2002. "Existence of a semicontinuous or continuous utility function: a unified approach and an elementary proof," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 311-328, November.
- Alexander Cherny & Dilip Madan, 2009. "New Measures for Performance Evaluation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2371-2406, July.
- Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
- David B. Brown & Melvyn Sim, 2009. "Satisficing Measures for Analysis of Risky Positions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 71-84, January.
- Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
- George Wu & Alex B. Markle, 2008. "An Empirical Test of Gain-Loss Separability in Prospect Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(7), pages 1322-1335, July.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60, pages 151.
- John W. Payne & Dan J. Laughhunn & Roy Crum, 1980. "Translation of Gambles and Aspiration Level Effects in Risky Choice Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(10), pages 1039-1060, October.
- John Payne, 2005. "It is Whether You Win or Lose: The Importance of the Overall Probabilities of Winning or Losing in Risky Choice," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 5-19, January.
- Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marilyn Barja)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.