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A nonparametric Bayesian approach for counterfactual prediction with an application to the Japanese private nursing home market

  • Sugawara, Shinya

This paper proposes a new inferential framework for structural econometric models using a nonparametric Bayesian approach. Although estimation methods based on moment conditions can employ a flexible estimation without distributional assumptions, they have difficulty conducting a prediction analysis. I propose a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for an estimation and prediction analysis. My methodology is applied to an empirical analysis of the Japanese private nursing home market. This market has a sticky economic circumstance, and my prediction simulates an intervention that removes this circumstance. The prediction result implies that the outdated circumstance in this market is harmful for consumers today.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42154/1/MPRA_paper_42154.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42154.

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Date of creation: 23 Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42154
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  15. Hanson, Timothy E., 2006. "Inference for Mixtures of Finite Polya Tree Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1548-1565, December.
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