A nonparametric Bayesian approach for counterfactual prediction with an application to the Japanese private nursing home market
This paper proposes a new inferential framework for structural econometric models using a nonparametric Bayesian approach. Although estimation methods based on moment conditions can employ a flexible estimation without distributional assumptions, they have difficulty conducting a prediction analysis. I propose a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for an estimation and prediction analysis. My methodology is applied to an empirical analysis of the Japanese private nursing home market. This market has a sticky economic circumstance, and my prediction simulates an intervention that removes this circumstance. The prediction result implies that the outdated circumstance in this market is harmful for consumers today.
|Date of creation:||23 Oct 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Amy Finkelstein & Kathleen McGarry, 2006. "Multiple Dimensions of Private Information: Evidence from the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 938-958, September.
- Peter Davis, 2006. "Spatial competition in retail markets: movie theaters," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(4), pages 964-982, December.
- Hanson, Timothy E., 2006. "Inference for Mixtures of Finite Polya Tree Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1548-1565, December.
- Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
- Kottas A. & Gelfand A.E., 2001. "Bayesian Semiparametric Median Regression Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1458-1468, December.
- Andrés Musalem & Eric T. Bradlow & Jagmohan S. Raju, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of random‐coefficients choice models using aggregate data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 490-516, 04.
- Jiang, Renna & Manchanda, Puneet & Rossi, Peter E., 2009. "Bayesian analysis of random coefficient logit models using aggregate data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 136-148, April.
- Aviv Nevo, 2000. "Mergers with Differentiated Products: The Case of the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(3), pages 395-421, Autumn.
- Olivia S. Mitchell & John Piggott & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2004.
"Aged-Care Support in Japan: Perspectives and Challenges,"
NBER Working Papers
10882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mitchell Olivia S. & PIGGOTT John & SHIMIZUTANI Satoshi, 2004. "Aged-Care Support in Japan: Perspectives and Challenges," ESRI Discussion paper series 118, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Steven Berry & Ariel Pakes, 2007. "The Pure Characteristics Demand Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1193-1225, November.
- Pradeep Chintagunta & Jean-Pierre Dubé & Khim Yong Goh, 2005. "Beyond the Endogeneity Bias: The Effect of Unmeasured Brand Characteristics on Household-Level Brand Choice Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 832-849, May.
- Amil Petrin, 2002. "Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 705-729, August.
- Sha Yang & Yuxin Chen & Greg Allenby, 2003. "Bayesian Analysis of Simultaneous Demand and Supply," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 251-275, September.
- David Byrne & Michelle S. Goeree & Bridget Hiedemann & Steven Stern, 2009. "Formal Home Health Care, Informal Care, And Family Decision Making," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1205-1242, November.
- Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
- Maxim Engers & Steven Stern, 2002.
"Long-Term Care and Family Bargaining,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(1), pages 73-114, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.