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New Keynesian macroeconomics : Empirically tested in the case of Republic of Macedonia

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  • Josheski, Dushko
  • Lazarov, Darko

Abstract

In this paper we test New Keynesian propositions about inflation and unemployment trade off with the New Keynesian Phillips curve and the proposition of non-neutrality of money. The main conclusion is that there is limited evidence in line with the New-Keynesian theory. Money and growth are cointegrated series and that money growth influences the economics growth with one quarter lag. Cointegration means also that if the two series are cointegrated they have long run equilibrium. St.Louis model in the paper showed overall that increase in money growth leads to decrease in the economy growth. But the effect in the equation at three quarters lag is positive. The NAIRU rate in the unemployment inflation trade off model is almost similar as high to the actual unemployment. In the New Keynesian Phillips curve not surprisingly, there appears to be no statistically significant relationship between inflation and Unemployment –even in the classical Philips curve and in adaptive expectations Philips curve by Modigliani- Papademos (1975). Or the Friedman-Phelps- Lucas expectations-augmented one between the difference of actual and expected inflation rate and the gap between actual and the natural rate of unemployment presented in the next equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Josheski, Dushko & Lazarov, Darko, 2012. "New Keynesian macroeconomics : Empirically tested in the case of Republic of Macedonia," MPRA Paper 41450, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41450
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    2. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1976. "Inflation and Unemployment," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1976-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    4. Gerald P. Dwyer & Rik Hafer, 1988. "Is money irrelevant?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-17.
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    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

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