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Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Assessment

  • Fukuda, Takashi
  • Dahalan, Jauhari
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    This paper attempts to explore a new dimension of India’s ‘finance-growth-crisis’ nexus. For this end, the summary indicators of financial development, financial crisis and financial repression are created through the principal component approach, and we perform the cointegration and Granger causality analysis employing the methods of vector error correction model (VECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The element of structural break is also taken into assessment while specifying the break date through the Bai and Perron (1998; 2003) test. The key findings are: (1) India’s finance-growth nexus is bilateral but exhibits stronger evidence on the causality of output→finance; and (2) economic growth, financial development and financial repression have significant long-run impacts on financial crisis.

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39467/1/MPRA_paper_39467.pdf
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    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39467.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2011
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    Publication status: Published in Economia Internazionale / International Economics 3.64(2011): pp. 297-328
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39467
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    5. Philip Arestis & Panicos O. Demetriades & Kul B. Luintel, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: the Role of Stock Markets," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 97/05, Department of Economics, Keele University.
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    10. James Crotty, 2008. "Structural Causes of the Global Financial Crisis: A Critical Assessment of the ‘New Financial Architecture’," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2008-14, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
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    13. Philip Arestis & Panicos O. Demetriades & Bassam Fattouh & Kostas Mouratidis, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Liberalisation Policies on Financial Development Evidence from Developing Economies," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/1, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
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    17. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
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    20. Enisan, Akinlo A. & Olufisayo, Akinlo O., 2009. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 162-171.
    21. Clive Bell & Peter L. Rousseau, 2000. "Post-Independence India: A Case of Finance-Led Industrialization?," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0019, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    22. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
    23. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    24. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
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    26. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
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