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An Error Correction Model Analysis of the Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Nigeria

  • Okpara, Godwin Chigozie

This study used Granger causality and then error correction model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment inflow to Nigeria during the period 1970 – 2009. The results show that causality runs from government policy, fiscal incentives, availability of natural resources and trade openness to FDI without reverse or feed back effect. The parsimonious result of the error correction model reveals that past foreign investment flows could significantly stimulate current investment inflows. Also, while inadequate natural resources reduce the inflow of FDI, fiscal incentives, favorable government policy, exchange rate and infrastructural development are found to be a positive and significant function of FDI in Nigeria. Market size (at lags 2 and 3) and trade openness are positively signed while political risk is negatively signed. These variables, however impact insignificantly on FDI. Thus, fiscal incentives, favorable government policy and infrastructural development are positive predictors of FDI inflows and should be used as policy instruments. In the light of these findings, recommendations such as government, improving on the country’s market size through its monetary and fiscal policy and revitalizing the agricultural sector for extraction of raw materials were made.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36676/1/MPRA_paper_36676.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36676.

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Date of creation: 14 Feb 2012
Date of revision: 14 Feb 2012
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36676
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  1. Ashoka Mody & Krishna Srinivasan, 1998. "Japanese and United States Firms as Foreign Investors: Do they march to the same tune?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 778-799, November.
  2. Chakrabarti, Avik, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross-Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-113.
  3. Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where It Goes? New Evidence From The Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-573, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Linda S. Goldberg & Charles D. Kolstad, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2009. "Factors determining FDI in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 40172, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2012.
  6. ibrahim, waheed & Omoniyi, Benjamin, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria: Political Factor Effects Revisited," MPRA Paper 59429, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
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