IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Applying the structural equation model rule-based fuzzy system with genetic algorithm for trading in currency market

  • Su, EnDer
  • Fen, Yu-Gin
Registered author(s):

    The present study uses the structural equation model (SEM) to analyze the correlations between various economic indices pertaining to latent variables, such as the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) value, the United States Dollar (USD) value, and USD index. In addition, a risk factor of volatility of currency returns is considered to develop a risk-controllable fuzzy inference system. The rational and linguistic knowledge-based fuzzy rules are established based on the SEM model and then optimized using the genetic algorithm. The empirical results reveal that the fuzzy logic trading system using the SEM indeed outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy. Moreover, when considering the risk factor of currency volatility, the performance appears significantly better. Remarkably, the trading strategy is apparently affected when the USD value or the volatility of currency returns shifts into either a higher or lower state.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35474/1/MPRA_paper_35474.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35474.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 12 Dec 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35474
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
    Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
    Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
    Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
    2. Williamson, Rohan, 2001. "Exchange rate exposure and competition: evidence from the automotive industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 441-475, March.
    3. Arun Kuppam & Ram Pendyala, 2001. "A structural equations analysis of commuters' activity and travel patterns," Transportation, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 33-54, February.
    4. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
    5. Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens J. M. & Schotman, Peter C & Van Dijk, Mathijs A, 2001. "The Cost of Capital in International Financial Markets: Local or Global," CEPR Discussion Papers 3062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gordon M. Bodnar & M.H. Franco Wong, 2003. "Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Issues in Model Structure," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 32(1), Spring.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Raul Razo-Garcia, 2006. "The international monetary system in the last and next 20 years," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 393-442, 07.
    8. Doidge, Craig & Griffin, John & Williamson, Rohan, 2006. "Measuring the economic importance of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 550-576, October.
    9. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.