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Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: evidence from the field

Author

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  • Santos-Pinto, Luís
  • Park, Young-Joon

Abstract

This paper uses a field experiment to investigate the quality of individuals' forecasts of relative performance in tournaments. We ask players in luck-based (poker) and skill-based (chess) tournaments to make point forecasts of rank. The main finding of the paper is that players' forecasts in both types of tournaments are biased towards overestimation of relative performance. However, the size of the biases found is not as large as the ones often reported in the psychology literature. We also find support for the "unskilled and unaware hypothesis" in chess: high skilled chess players make better forecasts than low skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players' forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Santos-Pinto, Luís & Park, Young-Joon, 2004. "Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: evidence from the field," MPRA Paper 3144, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Mar 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3144
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3144/1/MPRA_paper_3144.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Camerer, Colin F & Hogarth, Robin M, 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 7-42, December.
    3. Smith, Vernon L & Walker, James M, 1993. "Rewards, Experience and Decision Costs in First Price Auctions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 237-245, April.
    4. Reinhard Selten & Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Klaus Abbink, 1999. "Money Does Not Induce Risk Neutral Behavior, but Binary Lotteries Do even Worse," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 213-252, June.
    5. Luís Santos-Pinto & Joel Sobel, 2005. "A Model of Positive Self-Image in Subjective Assessments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1386-1402, December.
    6. Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.
    7. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1992. "Target zones and the distribution of exchange rates: An estimation method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 83-89, September.
    8. Eric Van den Steen, 2004. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1141-1151, September.
    9. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Santos-Pinto, Luís, 2005. "Positive self-image over time," MPRA Paper 3145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Apr 2006.
    2. Pinto, Luis Santos, 2007. "Positive Self-Image over Time?," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp504, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    3. Jacquemet, Nicolas & Rullière, Jean-Louis & Vialle, Isabelle, 2008. "Monitoring optimistic agents," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 698-714, November.
    4. Luís Santos-Pinto, 2010. "Positive Self-Image In Tournaments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 475-496, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tournaments; Rationality; Field Experiment;

    JEL classification:

    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines

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