The intertemporal mechanics of European stock price momentum
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between a stock market's index returns and its subsequent firm-level momentum profits. This relationship is analysed for each of ten individual European stock markets between 1973 and 2010. Design/methodology/approach – Using firm-level data, intra-market momentum returns are analysed, using various ranking and holding period combinations. Standard t-tests as well as pooled and country-specific regressions are employed to determine the significance of the non-linear relationship between one-, two- and three-year index returns and subsequent momentum returns. Findings – Momentum returns following a bull market are positive for all ten stock markets; statistical significance is reached by nine of those ten. Per contrast, momentum returns following a bear market are insignificant for all ten stocks markets, and the average return is negative. Further, in all ten stock markets the momentum profits are lowest following the greatest drops in the index; this effect is significant in eight countries. These results are consistent with the behavioural theories on investors' overconfidence and undue self-attribution. Practical implications – The paper's findings suggest that investors should refrain from pursuing a momentum strategy in European stock markets shortly after a severe bear market. Originality/value – This is the first study to investigate the temporal dependence of firm-level momentum returns on preceding index movements in European stock markets.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK|
Web: http://emeraldgrouppublishing.com/products/journals/journals.htm?id=sef Email:
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- K. Rouwenhorst, 1996.
"International Momentum Strategies,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm36, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2008.
- Nijman, T.E. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2002.
"Do Countries or Industries Explain Momentum in Europe?,"
ERIM Report Series Research in Management
ERS-2002-91-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Nijman, Theo & Swinkels, Laurens & Verbeek, Marno, 2004. "Do countries or industries explain momentum in Europe?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 461-481, September.
- Nijman, T.E. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2004. "Do countries or industries explain momentum in Europe?," Other publications TiSEM 73c21ccd-7c67-4e11-8eac-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Nijman, T.E. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2002. "Do Countries or Industries Explain Momentum in Europe?," Discussion Paper 2002-9, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Xiafei Li & Chris Brooks & Joelle Miffre, 2006.
"Momentum Profits and Time-Varying Unsystematic Risk,"
ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance
icma-dp2006-09, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Sep 2006.
- Li, Xiafei & Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2008. "Momentum profits and time-varying unsystematic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 541-558, April.
- Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
- Rachev, Svetlozar & Jasic, Teo & Stoyanov, Stoyan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2007. "Momentum strategies based on reward-risk stock selection criteria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
- Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, 06.
- Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001.
"Learning to be Overconfident,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
- Narasimhan Jegadeesh, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, 04.
- Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 425-447, June.
- Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
- John M. Griffin & Xiuqing Ji & J. Spencer Martin, 2003. "Momentum Investing and Business Cycle Risk: Evidence from Pole to Pole," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2515-2547, December.
- Huang, Dayong, 2006. "Market states and international momentum strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 437-446, July.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
- Miffre, Joelle & Rallis, Georgios, 2007. "Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1863-1886, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:217-232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.