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It’s the weather, stupid! Individual participation in collective May Day demonstrations

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  • Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter

Abstract

We investigate the possible explanations of variations in aggregate levels of participation in large-scale political demonstrations. A simple public choice inspired model is applied to data derived from the annual May Day demonstrations of the Danish labour movement and socialist parties taking place in Copenhagen in the period 1980-2009. The most important explanatory variables are variations in the weather conditions. Political and socio-economic conditions exhibit few or no robust effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2010. "It’s the weather, stupid! Individual participation in collective May Day demonstrations," MPRA Paper 27891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27891
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gordon Tullock, 1971. "The paradox of revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 89-99, September.
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    3. Matsusaka, John G & Palda, Filip, 1999. "Voter Turnout: How Much Can We Explain?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 98(3-4), pages 431-446, March.
    4. Knack, Steve, 1994. "Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(1-2), pages 187-209, April.
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    6. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753.
    7. Leeson, Peter T., 2010. "Rational choice, Round Robin, and rebellion: An institutional solution to the problems of revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 297-307, March.
    8. Timur Kuran, 1989. "Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 41-74, April.
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    10. repec:cup:apsrev:v:83:y:1989:i:03:p:885-903_08 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2014. "Politik er (næsten) ligegyldigt for demonstrationer
      [Politics is (almost) irrelevant in demonstrations]
      ," MPRA Paper 57195, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jo Thori Lind, 2015. "Spurious Weather Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 5365, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Jo Thori Lind, 2014. "Rainy Day Politics - An Instrumental Variables Approach to the Effect of Parties on Political Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 4911, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collective action; demonstrations; free-riding; public choice; rationality;

    JEL classification:

    • P36 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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