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Spurious weather effects

Author

Listed:
  • Jo Thori Lind

Abstract

Rainfall is exogenous to human actions and hence popular as an exogenous source of variation. But it is also spatially correlated. This can generate spurious relationships between rainfall and other spatially correlated outcomes. As an illustration, rainfall on almost any day of the year has seemingly high predictive power of electoral turnout in Norwegian municipalities. In Monte Carlo analyses, I find that standard tests reject true null hypotheses in as much as 99% of cases. Standard approaches to estimating consistent standard errors do not solve the problem. Instead, I suggest controlling for spatial and spatiotemporal trends using multidimensional polynomials.

Suggested Citation

  • Jo Thori Lind, 2019. "Spurious weather effects," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 322-354, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:59:y:2019:i:2:p:322-354
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12417
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    Cited by:

    1. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya," PSE Working Papers halshs-04685409, HAL.
    2. Marini, Marco A. & Nocito, Samuel, 2025. "Climate activism favors pro-environmental consumption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Impacts of repetitive droughts and the key role of experience : evidence from Nigeria," CIRED Working Papers halshs-04685420, HAL.
    4. Olukorede Abiona & Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner, 2022. "Financial Inclusion, Shocks, and Poverty: Evidence from the Expansion of Mobile Money in Tanzania," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(2), pages 435-464.
    5. Olukorede Abiona & Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner, 2016. "The Impact of Household Shocks on Domestic Violence: Evidence from Tanzania," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/14, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    6. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Impacts of repetitive droughts and the key role of experience : evidence from Nigeria," PSE Working Papers halshs-04685420, HAL.
    7. Sara Cools & Martin Flatø & Andreas Kotsadam, 2020. "Rainfall shocks and intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 377-390, May.
    8. Mélanie Gittard, 2024. "Droughts, Migration and Population in Kenya," CIRED Working Papers halshs-04685409, HAL.
    9. Philipp Ehrl & Leonardo Monasterio, 2021. "Spatial skill concentration agglomeration economies," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 140-161, January.
    10. Meier, Armando N. & Schmid, Lukas & Stutzer, Alois, 2019. "Rain, emotions and voting for the status quo," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 434-451.
    11. Lind, Jo Thori, 2020. "Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables approach to the effect of parties on political outcomes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Dorsch, Michael T. & Maarek, Paul, 2018. "Rent extraction, revolutionary threat, and coups in non-democracies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1082-1103.
    13. Gäbler, Stefanie & Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2025. "Administrative areas and regional identity formation: The case of East Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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