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Systemic Stability of Housing and Mortgage Market: From the observable to the unobservable

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  • Xiao, Qin

Abstract

Motivated by the revealed preference approach to consumer theory, this study constructs a dynamic theoretical model which infers the unobservable household behavior from the observable patterns of housing and mortgage market activities. The model emphasizes the role of asymmetric responses of sellers in different phases of a housing market cycle in generating certain price and volume patterns. Such role has so far largely been ignored in both theoretical and empirical studies of housing markets. The model also establishes, theoretically, multiple channels via which housing and mortgage markets interact and via which speculative forces are propagated. In addition, it generates a testable result regarding the stability of the system formed by the two markets, which may be extended by endogenizing some important policy instruments.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao, Qin, 2010. "Systemic Stability of Housing and Mortgage Market: From the observable to the unobservable," MPRA Paper 23708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23708
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24371/1/MPRA_paper_24371.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2004. "Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 304-320, December.
    2. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789.
    3. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    4. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    5. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    6. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567.
    7. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    8. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.
    9. Qin Xiao & Weihong Huang, 2010. "Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 529-543.
    10. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
    11. Brent C Smith, 2004. "Economic Depreciation of Residential Real Estate: Microlevel Space and Time Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 161-180, March.
    12. Robert M. Buckley, 1982. "A Simple Theory of the UK Housing Sector," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 19(3), pages 303-311, August.
    13. Qin Xiao, 2010. "Crashes in Real Estate Prices: Causes and Predictability," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(8), pages 1725-1744, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systemic stability; speculation; asymmetric seller response; feedback loop;

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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