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Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market


  • Qin Xiao
  • Weihong Huang


This study explores the short-run predictability of, and the risks facing investors in, Singapore's private housing market. We explicitly model a periodically collapsing rational speculative bubble within the present-value framework, and propose an unconventional approach as a first-step to screen for structural break(s). We found that a rational speculative bubble is an important predictor of the short-run price growth, especially in volatile times. Furthermore, rent is the only fundamental having a non-negligible impact. The study suggests that the major risk facing market participants comes from unpredictable local policy shifts, and/or a potentially predictable systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin Xiao & Weihong Huang, 2010. "Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 529-543.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:10:y:2010:i:5:p:529-543 DOI: 10.1080/14697680903236113

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cyril Caillault, Dominique Guégan, 2009. "Forecasting VaR and Expected Shortfall Using Dynamical Systems: A Risk Management Strategy," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 26-50, April.
    2. Dominique Guégan, 2007. "Global and local stationary modelling in finance : theory and empirical evidence," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07053, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Cyril Caillault & Dominique Guegan, 2005. "Empirical estimation of tail dependence using copulas: application to Asian markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 489-501.
    4. Dominique Guegan & Jing Zang, 2009. "Pricing bivariate option under GARCH-GH model with dynamic copula: application for Chinese market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 777-795.
    5. Granger, Clive W.J. & Terasvirta, Timo & Patton, Andrew J., 2006. "Common factors in conditional distributions for bivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 43-57, May.
    6. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    7. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    8. Fermanian, Jean-David, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 119-152, July.
    9. Gombay, Edit & Horváth, Lajos, 1996. "On the Rate of Approximations for Maximum Likelihood Tests in Change-Point Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 120-152, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao, Qin, 2010. "Systemic Stability of Housing and Mortgage Market: From the observable to the unobservable," MPRA Paper 23708, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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