Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market
This study explores the short-run predictability of, and the risks facing investors in, Singapore's private housing market. We explicitly model a periodically collapsing rational speculative bubble within the present-value framework, and propose an unconventional approach as a first-step to screen for structural break(s). We found that a rational speculative bubble is an important predictor of the short-run price growth, especially in volatile times. Furthermore, rent is the only fundamental having a non-negligible impact. The study suggests that the major risk facing market participants comes from unpredictable local policy shifts, and/or a potentially predictable systemic risk.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 10 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:10:y:2010:i:5:p:529-543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.