IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v10y2010i5p529-543.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market

Author

Listed:
  • Qin Xiao
  • Weihong Huang

Abstract

This study explores the short-run predictability of, and the risks facing investors in, Singapore's private housing market. We explicitly model a periodically collapsing rational speculative bubble within the present-value framework, and propose an unconventional approach as a first-step to screen for structural break(s). We found that a rational speculative bubble is an important predictor of the short-run price growth, especially in volatile times. Furthermore, rent is the only fundamental having a non-negligible impact. The study suggests that the major risk facing market participants comes from unpredictable local policy shifts, and/or a potentially predictable systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin Xiao & Weihong Huang, 2010. "Risk and predictability of Singapore's private residential market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 529-543.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:10:y:2010:i:5:p:529-543
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680903236113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697680903236113
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14697680903236113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takatoshi Ito & Tokuo Iwaisako, 1996. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 14(1), pages 143-193, July.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiao, Qin, 2010. "Systemic Stability of Housing and Mortgage Market: From the observable to the unobservable," MPRA Paper 23708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Qin Xiao & Yunhua Liu, 2010. "The residential market of Hong Kong: rational or irrational?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 923-933.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Park, Donghyun & Xiao, Qin, 2009. "Housing Prices and the Role of Speculation: The Case of Seoul," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 146, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2022. "Tác động của lạm phát đến hoạt động của thị trường chứng khoán ở Việt Nam: Kiểm chứng bằng mô hình GARCH," OSF Preprints azcqd, Center for Open Science.
    3. Barunik, Jozef & Krehlik, Tomas, 2016. "Measuring the frequency dynamics of financial and macroeconomic connectedness," FinMaP-Working Papers 54, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    4. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2010. "Does inflation has an Impact on Stock Returns and Volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana," MPRA Paper 30091, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2011.
    5. SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006. "The first stage in Hendry’s reduction theory revisited," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006082, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Shinhua Liu, 2007. "Securities Transaction Tax and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Japanese Experience," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 161-176, December.
    7. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Christian Conrad & Karin Loch, 2015. "Anticipating Long‐Term Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1090-1114, November.
    9. Jozef Baruník & Tomáš Křehlík, 2018. "Measuring the Frequency Dynamics of Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 271-296.
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    12. Zhijie Xiao & Luiz Renato Lima, 2007. "Testing Covariance Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 643-667.
    13. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Bubble contagion: Evidence from Japan’s asset price bubble of the 1980-90s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 89-95.
    14. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jean-Louis Bago & Koffi Akakpo & Imad Rherrad & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2021. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, June.
    16. Andre Tomfort, 2017. "The Japanese Asset Price Bubble: Evolvement and Consequences," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 4(2), pages 132-141.
    17. Neal Maroney & Atsuyuki Naka, 2006. "Diversification Benefits of Japanese Real Estate Over the Last Four Decades," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 259-274, November.
    18. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    19. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
    20. Nakajima, Tomoyuki, 2008. "Asset price fluctuations in Japan: 1980-2000," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 129-153, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:10:y:2010:i:5:p:529-543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.