IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Market, Too Risky to Invest?

  • Küçük, Ugur N.

Over the last decade emerging market (EM) sovereign debt has become a firmly established strategic asset class. Besides Dollar-denominated debt, local currency emerging market debt has also been developing to become an attractive and complementary investment asset class. EM countries have been successful to reduce currency mismatches and maturity problems by implementing sound fiscal and monetary policies. Analyzing the period from 2002 to July 2009, we show that the local currency debt provides significant additional alpha and diversification to traditional bond portfolios. In particular, first, EM local currency bond returns are less correlated to the US stock market, treasury and high-yield bond markets, and global risk premia compared to the a case of EM equity and Dollar-denominated bond markets. Second, we document that yields and excess returns on local currency debt depend largely on expected depreciation of the exchange rate against Dollar, while excess returns on Dollar-denominated EM debt are for the most part compensation for bearing the global risk. Third, we report that EM sovereign local currency bond returns beat other emerging market and mature market asset classes by providing higher risk adjusted excess returns and diversification. We believe that our results will have important policy implications not only for international investors but also for the EM governments. We suggest that the development of local currency bond markets in EM countries could contribute to global financial stability by reducing currency mismatches and reliance on foreign currency debt, which in turn is linked to growth and poverty reduction.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21878/1/MPRA_paper_21878.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23134/1/MPRA_paper_23134.pdf
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21878.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 21 Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21878
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  2. Olivier Jeanne, 2004. "Debt Maturity and the International Financial Architecture," IMF Working Papers 04/137, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Uppal, Raman, 2002. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Fernando A. Broner & R. Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1989. "Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 43-50, March.
  6. Emmanuel Farhi & Ricardo Caballero & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, . "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," Working Paper 20933, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  7. Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6703, Inter-American Development Bank.
  8. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007. "How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?," NBER Working Papers 13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Julien Reynaud & Arnaud Mehl, 2007. "The determinants of "domestic" original sin in emerging market economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 159, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  12. Levy, Haim & Sarnat, Marshall, 1970. "International Diversification of Investment Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 668-75, September.
  13. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
  14. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Francis A. Longstaff, 2002. "The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices," NBER Working Papers 9312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. A. Javier Hamann & Irina Bunda & Subir Lall, 2010. "Correlations in Emerging Market Bonds; The Role of Local and Global Factors," IMF Working Papers 10/6, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Campa, José Manuel & Fernandes, Nuno, 2004. "Sources of Gains from International Portfolio Diversification," CEPR Discussion Papers 4390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-26, May.
  20. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
  21. David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2005. "Financial Globalization and Fiscal Perfomance in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/212, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Campanaro,Alessandra & Vittas,Dimitri, 2004. "Greco-Roman lessons for public debt management and debt market development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3414, The World Bank.
  23. Dooley, M. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Policy Inconsistency and External Debt Service," Papers 467, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  24. Claessens, Stijn & Klingebiel, Daniela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2003. "Government bonds in domestic and foreign currency: the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2986, The World Bank.
  25. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Hostland, 2005. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods," IMF Working Papers 05/226, International Monetary Fund.
  26. William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119.
  27. Bank for International Settlements, 2007. "Financial stability and local currency bond markets," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 28, December.
  28. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  30. Kucuk, Ugur N., 2010. "Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market," MPRA Paper 27428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21878. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.