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Dynamic inter-relationship between trade, economic growth and tourism in Malaysia

  • Sarmidi, Tamat
  • Salleh, Norlida H

This study aims to test a hypothesis that postulate a positive inter-relationship between international flows of tourist, trade and economic growth. Although tourism is one of the major components in the trade of services, and it has been certified by large number of literatures on the strong correlation between tourism industry and economic development, yet not much is known on the dynamic inter-relationship between these three variables. Closing-up this gaping hole, this study employs the cointegration tests under autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) structure to investigate a dynamic inter-relationship between economic development, total trade (import and export) and number of tourist arrival for Malaysia and her major tourism partners ((ASEAN countries) . The estimated result based on the long run time series behavior for number of tourist arrival, volume of total trade and economic development’s indicator shows that these three variables are moved in tandem. Interestingly, in the analysis of short run behavior, we find that number of tourist arrival has significantly Granger caused total trade flows at least for some countries. At the same time, in the short-run, we find that both growth in total trade (export and import) and international tourists’ arrival to Malaysia have uni-directionally Granger caused real income growth and there is statistical evidence for international trade to lead tourist arrival.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21056/1/MPRA_paper_21056.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21056.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21056
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  1. N. Kulendran & Kenneth Wilson, 2000. "Is there a relationship between international trade and international travel?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1001-1009.
  2. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
  3. Fischer, Christian & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2007. "The nature of the relationship between international tourism and international trade: the case of German imports of Spanish wine," Discussion Papers 57033, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  5. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
  6. Jordan Shan & Ken Wilson, 2001. "Causality between trade and tourism: empirical evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 279-283.
  7. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2001. "Productivity Performance and Export Performance: A Time-Series Perspective," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 149-164, Spring.
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