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Global Economic Consequences of Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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  • Ozili, Peterson K

Abstract

This paper investigates the global economic consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war over a four-month period from December 2021 to March 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. The study used the Pearson correlation and two-stage least square regression methods to assess the impact of Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global economy. It was observed that stock prices plunged on the day of the invasion. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic jointly led to a significant increase in the world price of food and crude oil. The rise in the world food price index after the invasion was driven by a significant increase in the price of dairy and oils. The rise in inflation in Russia and Ukraine after the invasion was followed by a rise in inflation in countries that imposed severe sanctions on Russia, and in countries that were not involved in the conflict in any way.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozili, Peterson K, 2024. "Global Economic Consequences of Russian Invasion of Ukraine," MPRA Paper 120781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120781
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/120781/1/MPRA_paper_120779.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
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    1. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & McQuinn, Brian & Rajan, Surya, 2025. "Does Saudi Arabia's International Competitiveness Improve Due to Sanctions Imposed on Competitors? The case of two wars," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 457-482.
    2. Bożena Gajdzik & Radosław Wolniak & Anna Sączewska-Piotrowska & Wiesław Wes Grebski, 2025. "Polish Steel Production Under Conditions of Decarbonization—Steel Volume Forecasts Using Time Series and Multiple Linear Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-38, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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