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Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries

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  • Chellai, Fatih

Abstract

Subject and purpose of work: In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyzes strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods: different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results: Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices . Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions: Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Chellai, Fatih, 2024. "Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 120067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120067
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evan Fraser & Alexander Legwegoh & Krishna KC, 2015. "Food stocks and grain reserves: evaluating whether storing food creates resilient food systems," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(3), pages 445-458, September.
    2. Mohamed Behnassi & Mahjoub El Haiba, 2022. "Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 754-755, June.
    3. Donald F. Larson & Julian Lampietti & Christophe Gouel & Carlo Cafiero & John Roberts, 2014. "Food Security and Storage in the Middle East and North Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 48-73.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic Food; Food Reserve; Food security; Arab Countries.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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