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Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries

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  • Chellai, Fatih

Abstract

Subject and purpose of work: In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyzes strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods: different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results: Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices . Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions: Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Chellai, Fatih, 2024. "Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 120067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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