IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/117927.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Technological progress and the future of work

Author

Listed:
  • Schilirò, Daniele

Abstract

This contribution focuses on the impact of technological progress on the long-term growth, its effects on the labor factor, and its influence on the future of work. Technological progress alters the nature of work and society as a whole, but it does not necessarily benefit everyone. The paper emphasizes that technological progress, including the adoption of digital technologies and automation processes, often involves the substitution of machines for labor, which can lead to the displacement of workers. It also acknowledges the existence of counterbalancing forces. Technological progress can also lead to changes in the quality of work, transforming jobs and necessitating the emergence of new tasks, skills, and retraining efforts, along with the creation of new professional roles. Particular attention is devoted to the recent evolution of AI, including generative AI, and its disruptive effect on work. The main argument of this paper is that the disruption caused by digital technologies puts many jobs at risk. However, the most evident effect is not so much that there will be fewer jobs with the introduction of technologies such as AI, but rather that the nature of work will change.

Suggested Citation

  • Schilirò, Daniele, 2023. "Technological progress and the future of work," MPRA Paper 117927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117927
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/117927/1/Schilir%C3%B2Daniele_Technological%20Progress%20and%20the%20Future%20of%20Work-13July2023.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Schilirò, Daniele, 2020. "Towards digital globalization and the covid-19 challenge," MPRA Paper 100504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2020.
    3. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    4. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    5. David Autor, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Technological Change: From Unbridled Enthusiasm to Qualified Optimism to Vast Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 30074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Schilirò, Daniele, 2021. "Digital transformation, COVID-19, and the future of work," MPRA Paper 108817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saverio Minardi & Carla Hornberg & Paolo Barbieri & Heike Solga, 2023. "The link between computer use and job satisfaction: The mediating role of job tasks and task discretion," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 796-831, December.
    2. Filippos Petroulakis, 2023. "Task Content and Job Losses in the Great Lockdown," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(3), pages 586-613, May.
    3. Santana, Monica & Cobo, Manuel J., 2020. "What is the future of work? A science mapping analysis," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 846-862.
    4. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    5. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    6. Alex Chernoff & Casey Warman, 2023. "COVID-19 and implications for automation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(17), pages 1939-1957, April.
    7. Armanda Cetrulo & Dario Guarascio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "Anatomy of the Italian occupational structure: concentrated power and distributed knowledge," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 29(6), pages 1345-1379.
    8. David Kunst, 2019. "Deskilling among Manufacturing Production Workers," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-050/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Dec 2020.
    9. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    10. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    11. Pagano, Marco & Picariello, Luca, 2023. "Talent discovery, layoff risk and unemployment insurance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. Blanas, Sotiris & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "COVID-induced economic uncertainty, tasks and occupational demand," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Simon Eisele & Martin R. Schneider, 2020. "What Do Unions Do to Work Design? Computer Use, Union Presence, and Tayloristic Jobs in Britain," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 604-626, October.
    14. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2022. "Modelling artificial intelligence in economics," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-12.
    15. Kozo Kiyota & Sawako Maruyama, 2018. "On the Demand for Female Workers in Japan: The Role of ICT and Offshoring," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(2), pages 25-46, Summer.
    16. Songul Tolan & Annarosa Pesole & Fernando Martinez-Plumed & Enrique Fernandez-Macias & José Hernandez-Orallo & Emilia Gomez, 2020. "Measuring the Occupational Impact of AI: Tasks, Cognitive Abilities and AI Benchmarks," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2020-02, Joint Research Centre.
    17. Bokrantz, Jon & Skoogh, Anders & Berlin, Cecilia & Wuest, Thorsten & Stahre, Johan, 2020. "Smart Maintenance: a research agenda for industrial maintenance management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    18. Robin Döttling & Enrico Perotti, 2015. "Mortgage Finance and Technological Change," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-079/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Cebreros Alfonso & Heffner-Rodríguez Aldo & Livas René & Puggioni Daniela, 2020. "Automation Technologies and Employment at Risk: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2020-04, Banco de México.
    20. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer & Michael Peneder & Philipp Piribauer & Peter Reschenhofer, 2018. "Beschäftigungseffekte der Digitalisierung in den Bundesländern sowie in Stadt und Land," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61633, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological progress; digital technologies; growth; technological unemployment; job displacement; transformation of work; new tasks; future jobs.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • M53 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Training
    • M54 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Labor Management
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.