IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/115161.html

The relationship between unemployment, NAIRU and investment: microfundations for incomplete nominal adjustment

Author

Listed:
  • Vîntu, Denis

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple method to estimate a macro shock-specific Okun elasticity: it measures by how much the unemployment rate falls over a certain horizon when output increases by one percentage point over the same horizon because of a specific macroeconomic shock. Inference is based on simple instrumental variable regressions of cumulative unemployment on cumulative output. Using data for the Republic of Moldova I consider government spending, tax, monetary policy, financial, technology, and oil shocks. We obtain eight key results: • At medium horizons (2-3 years), Okun elasticities are largely stable across different kinds of shocks. • At shorter horizons, differences are more pronounced. The speed at which unemployment adjusts relative to output depends on the shock driving fluctuations. This highlights the importance to consider longer horizons. Otherwise, one could incorrectly conclude that the elasticity breaks down for some cycles. • The elasticity is larger for financial shocks. Importantly, it is larger than for monetary policy and government spending shocks. • The largest elasticity is for technological shocks followed by oil shocks. • An increase/decrease in unemployment by (0.14 p.p.) caused an increase/decrease in GDP by 1 p.p. period 2011--2015. • An increase/decrease in unemployment by (1.79 p.p.) caused an increase/decrease in money supply by 1 p.p. period 2011--2015. • An increase/decrease in unemployment by (0.17 p.p.) caused an increase/decrease in GDP by 1 p.p. period 2007--2011. • An increase/decrease in unemployment by (0.06 p.p.) caused an increase/decrease in money supply by 1 p.p. period 2007--2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Vîntu, Denis, 2022. "The relationship between unemployment, NAIRU and investment: microfundations for incomplete nominal adjustment," MPRA Paper 115161, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115161/1/MPRA_paper_115161.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Pernia, Ernesto & Kakwani, Nanak, 2000. "What is Pro-poor Growth?," MPRA Paper 104987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fagerberg, Jan, 1994. "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1147-1175, September.
    5. Bourguignon, F. & Morrisson, C., 1990. "Income distribution, development and foreign trade : A cross-sectional analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1113-1132, September.
    6. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
    7. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-348, November.
    8. Verspagen, Bart, 2000. "Growth and Structural Change: Trends, Patterns and Policy Options," Research Memorandum 015, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    10. David Dollar & Aart Kraay, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 22-49, February.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Robin Burgess & Stephen J. Redding & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2008. "The Unequal Effects of Liberalization: Evidence from Dismantling the License Raj in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1397-1412, September.
    12. Wade, Robert Hunter, 2004. "Is Globalization Reducing Poverty and Inequality?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 567-589, April.
    13. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    14. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "How Have the World's Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 19(2), pages 141-169.
    15. Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2005. "Policy Reform and Income Distribution," Working Papers 3, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    16. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    18. Amable, Bruno, 2000. "International specialisation and growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 413-431, December.
    19. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 1-3.
    20. 石田, 正美, 2003. "Industrialization in Indonesia since the 1970s," IDE Research Papers 5, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vîntu, Denis, 2022. "Model of Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 112964, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Mar 2022.
    2. Michael Peneder & Karl Aiginger & Gernot Hutschenreiter & Markus Marterbauer, 2001. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 20668.
    3. Vîntu, Denis, 2024. "Heterogeneous Effects of Fiscal Rules Under the Maastricht Fiscal Criterion: Budget Fiscal Deficit and Debt Sustainability Analysis," MPRA Paper 125855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2024.
    4. Alessandro Bellocchi & Giuseppe Travaglini & Beatrice Vitali, 2023. "How capital intensity affects technical progress: An empirical analysis for 17 advanced economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 606-631, July.
    5. Vîntu, Denis, 2022. "An application: Pension systems and transitions," MPRA Paper 113128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2022.
    6. Thomas Ziesemer, 2018. "Testing the Growth Links of Emerging Economies: Croatia in a Growing World Economy," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27.
    7. Aribah Aslam, 2020. "The hotly debate of human capital and economic growth: why institutions may matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1351-1362, August.
    8. Muhammad Jawad & Zaib Maroof & Munazza Naz, 2019. "Industrial development factors: a comprehensive analysis of United States of America, European Union and China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1763-1821, July.
    9. Mark Roberts & Mark Setterfield, 2010. "Endogenous Regional Growth: A Critical Survey," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 21, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Bayraktar-Sağlam, Bahar & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "A Romerian contribution to the empirics of economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 257-272.
    11. Iancu, Aurel, 2007. "The Question of Economic Convergence - first part -," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(3), pages 5-18, September.
    12. Carine Nourry, 2012. "Dasgupta, D.: Modern growth theory," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 105(1), pages 97-100, January.
    13. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2008. "Technology trap and poverty trap in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4582, The World Bank.
    14. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    16. Iryna Kalenyuk & Liudmyla Tsymbal, 2021. "Assessment of the intellectual component in economic development," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(6), pages 4793-4816, June.
    17. Iancu, Aurel, 2009. "Real Economic Convergence," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 090104, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    18. Jeon, Heesang, 2015. "Knowledge and Contemporary Capitalism in Light of Marx's Value Theory," Thesis Commons g5njk, Center for Open Science.
    19. Schilirò, Daniele, 2006. "Crescita economica, conoscenza e capitale umano. Le teorie e i modelli di crescita endogena di Paul Romer e Robert Lucas [Economic growth, knowledge and human capital. Theories and models of endogenous growth by Paul Romer and Robert Lucas]," MPRA Paper 52435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:2:y:2002:i:1:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Frank Gyimah Sackey & Emmanuel Orkoh & Mohammed Musah, 2024. "Investigating the impact of institutional quality under the petroleum price deregulation policy regime on the economic growth of Ghana," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-21, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115161. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.