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Heterogeneous Effects of Fiscal Rules Under the Maastricht Fiscal Criterion: Budget Fiscal Deficit and Debt Sustainability Analysis

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  • Vîntu, Denis

Abstract

We contend that ambivalence or uncertainty regarding the error terms may be the root cause of many methodological misunderstandings in time-series econometrics. Macroeconomic time series have imprecise relationships, and early econometricians invariably discovered that any estimated relationship would only fit with errors. Second part is designed to quarterly estimated structural macro econometric model for the Republic of Moldova, denoted A Classical Macroeconometric Data Model for the Republic of Moldova (MDM) in context of Neo-Classical Approach of the Economy. We have interpreted the term error from the perspective of 7 macroeconomic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (error, pension), Inflation Rate (error, wage and salary,) Interest Rate (error, unemployment) Unemployment Rate (error inflation rate), Budget Fiscal Deficit (error, ra-gap vat gap estimation), Public Debt (ra-gap vat gap estimation) and Exchange Rate (error, gross domestic product).

Suggested Citation

  • Vîntu, Denis, 2024. "Heterogeneous Effects of Fiscal Rules Under the Maastricht Fiscal Criterion: Budget Fiscal Deficit and Debt Sustainability Analysis," MPRA Paper 125855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:125855
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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