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Systemic Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: A Recent Perspective

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  • Tunio, Mohsin Waheed

Abstract

This paper first looks for Sudden Stops in capital inflows to nineteen emerging economies of Asia, Europe, Latin America, and Africa as Calvo, Izquierdo and Mejia (2008) based on the country-specific data availability from January 1990 to May 2022. The paper then introduces the notion of Systemic Sudden Stop as the one triggered by exogenous factors and measured in terms of a rise in Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) spreads. The author finds out that four countries i.e. Indonesia, Thailand, Poland, and Egypt have already entered into the Systemic Sudden Stop phase while other emerging economies could also be at a greater risk of the similar situation. The major risks to emerging markets come from the commodity prices and rising inflation due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict; tightening financial conditions; mounting uncertainty; and recessionary fears. Nevertheless, on the positive note, net ratings of emerging market sovereign bonds have improved in comparison with the year 2020, and EMBI spreads have not increased much due to greater risk being already priced-in, especially in high yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Tunio, Mohsin Waheed, 2022. "Systemic Sudden Stops in Emerging Economies: A Recent Perspective," MPRA Paper 113693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113693
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 509-524, August.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2008. "Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    8. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    9. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sudden stops; capital inflows; capital outflows; emerging markets; exchange rate; current account; EMBI spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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