IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/109271.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did Diversification Impact Economic Growth in Nigeria in the Last 20 Years of Democratic Government (1999–2019)? A Vector Error Correction Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ajayi, Temitope Abraham

Abstract

Diversification of the Nigerian economy from oil-based to other non-oil sectors has become a recurrent economic solution to the growing challenges associated with the Nigerian economy. For the past 20 years of uninterrupted democratic government in Nigeria, the successive federal governments have focused on the development of the agricultural sector as a credible option for diversification, partly for the past positive roles of the agricultural sector in the Nigerian economy before the discovery of oil. Using the multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data obtained from 1999 to 2019, this study applied the vector error correction (VEC) model to determine the impacts of diversification of the Nigerian economy on economic growth, focusing on the manufacturing and the agricultural sectors. To determine the underlying impact of the democratic experience in Nigeria with diversification, we utilised the political rights of the population as a proxy variable. The empirical results showed that there exists cointegration among the variables used to represent the manufacturing and the agricultural sectors, political rights, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate within the Nigerian economy. The manufacturing sector has a positive impact on the growth of the Nigerian economy; however, the agricultural sector and the political rights of the Nigerian people have adverse effects on the real GDP growth rate, in the short run. The Granger Causality tests found no evidence of causality among the variables. This study concludes that the diversification policy of the Nigerian government should be multi-faceted and that the political rights of the population are essential for the realisation of the diversification goal.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajayi, Temitope Abraham, 2020. "Did Diversification Impact Economic Growth in Nigeria in the Last 20 Years of Democratic Government (1999–2019)? A Vector Error Correction Model ," MPRA Paper 109271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109271/1/MPRA_paper_109271.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496, November.
    8. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2005. "Resource Rents, Governance, and Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 625-633, August.
    9. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    10. Kolawole Olayiwola & Henry Okodua, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment, Non-Oil Exports, and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(11), pages 1479-1496.
    11. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    12. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    13. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P Pegkas & C Tsamadias, 2016. "How important are foreign and domestic investments, exports and human capital for Greece's economic growth?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 21(1), pages 23-45, March.
    2. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    3. Antonelli, Cristiano & Amidei, Federico Barbiellini & Fassio, Claudio, 2014. "The mechanisms of knowledge governance: State owned enterprises and Italian economic growth, 1950–1994," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 43-63.
    4. Rana P. Maradana & Rudra P. Pradhan & Saurav Dash & Kunal Gaurav & Manju Jayakumar & Debaleena Chatterjee, 2017. "Does innovation promote economic growth? Evidence from European countries," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Fethi, Sami & Katircioglu, Salih Turan, 2008. "Does Trade Policy Matter in an Isolated Economy? A Case Study," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(4), pages 637-664.
    6. Johannes W. Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2017. "Schumpeterian and semi-endogenous productivity growth explanations," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 25(1), pages 111-137, January.
    7. Emrah Sofuoğlu & Oktay Kızılkaya & Emrah Koçak, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of High-Technology Exports on the Growth of the Turkish Economy," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 205-229, January.
    8. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    9. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    12. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    13. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Growth, technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1033-1062.
    14. Masanao Aoki & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2004. "Demand saturation – creation and economic growth," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2001. "An Investigation of the Public Deficts and Government Spending Relationship: Evidence for Greece," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 107(1), pages 169-182, April.
    16. Sadik, Ali T. & Bolbol, Ali A., 2001. "Capital Flows, FDI, and Technology Spillovers: Evidence from Arab Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2111-2125, December.
    17. Giovanni Peri & Laura Bottaz, 2005. "The International Dynamics of R&D and Innovationin the Short Run and in the Long Run," Working Papers 59, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    18. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2016. "The effects of ICT⁎ on output per worker: A study of the Chinese economy," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 102-115.
    19. Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2003. "Trade liberalization and endogenous growth of manufacturing industries in Bangladesh: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 305-314.
    20. Shuhei Aoki & Julen Esteban-Pretel & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2010. "The Role of the Government in Facilitating TFP Growth during Japan’s Rapid-growth Era," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Keijiro Otsuka & Kaliappa Kalirajan (ed.), Community, Market and State in Development, chapter 4, pages 21-44, Palgrave Macmillan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diversification; Nigeria; GDP; Cointegration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.