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Investing in Arms to Secure Water

Listed author(s):
  • Janmaat, John A
  • Ruijs, Arjan

Where nations depend on resources originating outside their borders, such as river water, some believe that the resulting international tensions may lead to conflict. Homer-Dixon (1999) and Toset et al. (2000) argue such conflict is most likely between riparian neighbours, with a militarily superior downstream 'leader' nation. In a two stage stochastic game, solutions involving conflict are more common absent a leader, where a pure strategy equilibria may not exist. When upstream defensive expenditures substitute for water using investments, a downstream leader may induced an arms race to increase downstream water supplies. Water scarcity may not be a cause for war, but may cause a buildup in arms that can make any conflict between riparian neighbours more serious.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10667/1/MPRA_paper_10667.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10667.

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Date of creation: 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10667
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