IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/105005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tendance de l'inflation sous-jacente en RDC: une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR structurelle
[Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo: a model based on the Structural VAR approach]

Author

Listed:
  • Murhula, Pacifique

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate a SVAR model to analyze the trend of underlying inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and follow the identification approach of Blanchard and Quah (1989) to impose long-run restrictions. Thus, we use Congolese data on the growth rate of activity and the inflation rate from 2002Q1 to 2019Q4. Our results broadly confirm those generally found in the literature and show that the monetary shock has, in accordance with the identification constraint, almost no effect on economic activity, which tends to validate the verticality of the Phillips curve and the persistence of the negative real shock considerably explains the volatility of inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Suggested Citation

  • Murhula, Pacifique, 2020. "Tendance de l'inflation sous-jacente en RDC: une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR structurelle [Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo: a model based on the Structural VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 105005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jan 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105005/1/MPRA_paper_105005.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2015. "Core Inflation Indicators for Saudi Arabia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 257-266, June.
    3. Stan du Plessis, Gideon du Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," Working Papers 503, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    4. Zheng Liu & Justin Weidner, 2011. "Does headline inflation converge to core?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug1.
    5. Chauvin, V. & Le Bihan, H., 2007. "Mesures et perception de l’inflation en France et dans la zone euro. État des lieux," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 160, pages 19-34.
    6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The consumer price index as a measure of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 29(Q IV), pages 15-24.
    7. Sigal Ribon, 2009. "Core Inflation Indices for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2009.08, Bank of Israel.
    8. Shahiduzzaman, Md, 2009. "Measuring Core Inflation in Bangladesh: The Choice of Alternative Methods," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 32(1), pages 23-44, March.
    9. Sajad Boroumand & Teimour Mohammadi & Jamshid Pajooyan & Abbas Memarnejad, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 23(4), pages 1057-1083, Autumn.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pacifique Murhula, 2021. "Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo : a model based on the Structural VAR approach [TENDANCE DE L'INFLATION SOUS-JACENTE EN RDC : une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR Structurelle ]," Working Papers hal-03103775, HAL.
    2. C.K. Folkertsma & K. Hubrich, 2000. "Performance of core inflation measures," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 639, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Landau, Bettina, 2000. "Core inflation rates: a comparison of methods based on west German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2020. "Forecasting core inflation: the case of South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(28), pages 3004-3022, June.
    5. Franz Ruch & Stan du Plessis, 2015. "SecondRound Effects from Food and Energy Prices an SBVAR approach," Working Papers 7008, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    7. Bonhomme, Stphane & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2009. "Consistent noisy independent component analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 12-25, April.
    8. Friday Osemenshan Anetor, 2020. "Foreign Capital Inflows, Financial Development and Growth In Nigeria: A Structural VAR Approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(3), pages 69-86, July-Sept.
    9. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    10. Kiptui, Moses, 2015. "Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Kenya: The Relative Importance of Real and Nominal Shocks," MPRA Paper 61515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2006. "The Effect of Latvian Pension Reform on Savings and Government Budget," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 3-21, July.
    12. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    13. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    14. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Stephen McKnight & Marco Robles Sánchez, 2014. "Is a monetary union feasible for Latin America? Evidence from real effective exchange rates and interest rate pass-through levels," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 225-262.
    16. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski, 2009. "Bezwzględna stopa inflacji w gospodarce polskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 9, pages 1-21.
    17. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    18. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
    19. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 125-139, March.
    20. Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Ken Miyajima & Mr. Kadima D. Kalonji, 2008. "Analyzing Determinants of Inflation When There Are Data Limitation: The Case of Sierra Leone," IMF Working Papers 2008/271, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Core Inflation; Price Stability; Monetary Policy; Economic Growth; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.