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Core Inflation Indicators for Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Ryadh M. Alkhareif

    () (Economic Research Department, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

  • William A. Barnett

    () (University of Kansas, Lawrence; Center for Financial Stability, New York, USA)

Abstract

This paper constructs and analyzes core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia for the period of March 2012 to May 2014 using two alternative approaches: the exclusion method (ex food and housing/rent) and the statistical method. The findings of the analysis suggest that the ex food and housing/rent inflation is more volatile than the overall CPI inflation over the sample period. In contrast, the statistical core inflation is relatively more stable and less volatile. Moreover, the ex food and housing/rent inflation is only weakly correlated with headline inflation, whereas the statistical core inflation exhibits a stronger correlation. This combination of lower volatility and higher correlation with headline inflation makes the statistical method a much better choice for policymakers. From a monetary policy standpoint, using a bundle of core inflation measures, including both properly constructed exclusion and statistical methods, is more desirable, especially when variation across measures is widespread, as is the case in Saudi Arabia.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2015. "Core Inflation Indicators for Saudi Arabia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 257-266, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:62:y:2015:i:3:p:257-266
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William Barnett, 2012. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates for the GCC Countries," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201209, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2012.
    2. William A. Barnett & Ryadh M. Alkhareif, 2015. "Modern and Traditional Methods for Measuring Money Supply: The Case of Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, February.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue may, pages 205-228.
    5. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005. "A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-560, June.
    6. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
    7. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2011. "The general dynamic factor model: One-sided representation results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 23-28, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alkhareif, Ryadh, 2016. "Are there significant premiums in the Saudi stock market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 108-115.
    2. Sahu, Priyanka, 2018. "The Impact of Shocks on Core Inflation; Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 86588, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer price index; Core inflation; Generalized dynamic factor model; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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