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Leçons macroéconomiques de la Covid-19: une analyse pour la RDC
[Macroeconomic Lessons from Covid-19: An Analysis for DRC]

Author

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  • UMBA, Gilles Bertrand
  • SIASI, Yves
  • LUMBALA, Grégoire

Abstract

This work aims at studying the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 on the activity economic in DR Congo. To do this, a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model in the open economy is used and the model parameters are estimated using the Bayesian approach. The estimated data cover the period from the first quarter 2012 in the second quarter of 2020. The diagnostic tests, in particular the convergence test Monte-Carlo Markov chains (MCMC) lead to consider that the parameters are reliable. The results indicate that: (i) the COVID-19 shock would lead to a significant drop in the output gap until the 8th trimester after the incurrence of the shock; (ii) the level of consumption also suffers a downside effect following the health crisis up to more than 10 quarters after the shock; (iii) The nominal exchange rate also depreciates with a more and more attenuated from the 6th quarter after the shock, and (iv) the term of exchange suffers also from a negative effect but with a larger confidence interval, which could possibly reflect a potentially significant effect following the interruption of trade resulting from the measures of confinement.

Suggested Citation

  • UMBA, Gilles Bertrand & SIASI, Yves & LUMBALA, Grégoire, 2020. "Leçons macroéconomiques de la Covid-19: une analyse pour la RDC [Macroeconomic Lessons from Covid-19: An Analysis for DRC]," MPRA Paper 102589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:102589
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
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    4. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    5. Pedro Brinca & Joao B. Duarte & Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2020. "Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 31, May.
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    8. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donald Kemajou Njatang, 2021. "Impact économique de la COVID‐19 au Cameroun: Les résultats du modèle SIR‐macro," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 126-138, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; COVID-19; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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