Multiplicity and Sunspots in General Financial Equilibrium with Portfolio Constraints
This paper explores the role of portfolio constraints in generating multiplicity of equilibrium. We present a simple asset market economy with two goods and two households, households who face constraints on their ability to take unbounded positions in risky stocks. Absent such constraints, equilibrium allocation is unique and is Pareto efficient. With a single portfolio constraint in place, the efficient equilibrium is still possible; however, additional inefficient equilibria in which the constraint is binding may emerge. We show further that with sunspots, there may be a continuum of equilibria; sunspots may lead to real indeterminacy. Extending our analysis of sunspot phenomena to three periods, we show that our model is also capable of generating moves in stock prices unrelated to so-called fundamentals; such movements are triggered purely by sunspots which only affect investors'(rational) expectations about future market behavior. This provides a simple, coherent explanation for the apparent inability of empirical studies to link many sharp price movements in stock markets to news about economic fundamentals.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/pier
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Cass & Anna Pavlova, .
"On Trees and Logs,"
CARESS Working Papres
00-01, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- David Cass & Anna Pavlova, . "On Trees and Logs," Penn CARESS Working Papers e046baf19b9659b668c46a5f9, Penn Economics Department.
- Pavlova, Anna & Cass, David, 2002. "On Trees and Logs," Working papers 4233-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Cass, David & Pavlova, Anna, 2003. "On Trees And Logs," Working papers 4233-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988.
"What Moves Stock Prices?,"
NBER Working Papers
2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geanakoplos, J. & Magill, M. & Quinzii, M. & Dreze, J., .
"Generic inefficiency of stock market equilibrium when markets are incomplete,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-916, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Geanakoplos, J. & Magill, M. & Quinzii, M. & Dreze, J., 1990. "Generic inefficiency of stock market equilibrium when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 113-151.
- John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii & J. Dreze, 1988. "Generic Inefficiency of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 863, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
- Cass, David & Siconolfi, Paolo & Villanacci, Antonio, 2001. "Generic regularity of competitive equilibria with restricted participation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 61-76, September.
- Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
- Duffie, Darrell & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets: I : A basic model of generic existence," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 285-300, June.
- Jérôme Detemple & Angel Serrat, 2003. "Dynamic Equilibrium with Liquidity Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 597-629.
- Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003.
"Rational panics and stock market crashes,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 234-263, June.
- Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
- Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989.
"Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
- Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005.
"Wealth Transfers, Contagion and Portfolio Constraints,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5117, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints," NBER Working Papers 11440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jérôme B. Detemple & Shashidhar Murthy, 1997. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and No-Arbitrage with Portfolio Constraints," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-12, CIRANO.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-41.
- Detemple, Jerome & Murthy, Shashidhar, 1997. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and No-Arbitrage with Portfolio Constraints," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1133-74.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pen:papers:06-012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dolly Guarini)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.