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Under the water: flood impacts and economic dynamics in northern Peru

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Cobian Alvarez
  • Budy Resosudarmo

Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of devastating flooding on household welfare in northern Peru. Remote sensing data are used to construct a novel damage index as a proxy for the local economic impact caused by the 2017 coastal El Niño floods. Using 5-year panel data from the Peruvian National Household Survey (ENAHO), we observe that affected households experience a decrease in income and expenditure compared to those in unaffected areas during the period 2015–2019. Additionally, poverty increases as a result of this natural hazard, especially among households in urban areas. Although there is a recovery in income and expenditure in the aftermath of the floods, households mitigate their consumption through donations of food and clothing. We suggest that, in a context where the occurrence of flooding affects the most vulnerable groups, the development of formal risk-coping strategies such as insurance is crucial for boosting their ability to reduce, mitigate, or adapt to future disaster risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Cobian Alvarez & Budy Resosudarmo, 2025. "Under the water: flood impacts and economic dynamics in northern Peru," Departmental Working Papers 2025-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2025-07
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-05/ACDE%20T%26D%20Cobian-Alvarez%20%26%20Resosudarmo%202025%2007_0.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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